USDA Soybean estimates too high for new-crop

[c-x-1]

RiceFarmerJohn,

if i understand your question, the chart would simply be 2 lines converging over time on the X-axis from Apr or May to Jan, with the USDA line being higher on y-axis.

of course, at first the "actual prod" line would be invisible, and it would appear slowly over time -- even then, it would be a "only mother nature knows" line, at that---until sometimes Jul (last yr), Aug - Sep reports when there is a tangible element to actual.

then, as you get to Aug-Jan reports the lines would be closest. 

[c-x-1]

Chase,

both old and new beans are in a solid uptrend on weekly charts for several years now.

are you saying cards need to come out of deck to maintain the uptrend?

bet I know who the reliable sources hop(e)ing for sub $10 are. 2 of 'em begin with a c with one of those a country, an a, b, c - there, easy as ABC.

......AND the board is essentially inverted through new 2016.

[c-x-1]

also interesting on the beans, Chase is cmegroup margin require has increased almost 25% in last few months...........so, powers expect some increased volatility.....you can bank on that.

[rightone]

bean planting condition were actually worse than corn planting for most.

also pp acres add up over time: 

65 mill acres of beans harvested @ 40 bu is a ways under 3 bill bu total.

btw, quarterly earnings at dupont were $270 million less due to returned seed corn this year.

( figure the afore for a couple 3 other cos...and there is a reliable indicator or how much intended corn did not get planted ).

say 82 to 83 mill acres of corn harvested at 150 bu avg is a touch under the carry or stocks # some are expecting too.

[sw363535]

Rice Farmer John,      welcome

That's the problem --------- no one ever counts the actual.  usda projections are posted ------ and after 6 months become accepted as reality ------------ and that is why we are out of beans and nearly out of corn right now even though we have a "carryover" perception to deal with.

And that is called market tampering.   We have endured three years of drought in big production areas for various crops and the only reason the price has been up is devaluation of the currency.  

Fact is we gotta have a good crop this year and the only way to make it available asap is lowering of price -------- and that seems to have nothing to do with production.  Now ---when you can't find a supply we are being told to sell the new crop you don't have or the market will make you loose money.  Printing press Ben flamed a run up in prices last year ----- not sure he is going to print this year.

The paper market wants your committments  -------------------- so far they don't seem to be getting a lot contracted for all the bear slobbers we are having to wipe off the goggles.  This is just a less than desirable year so far.