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Veteran Advisor

USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

On Nov. 29, 2016, at 12pm EST, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release selected tables from its upcoming USDA Agricultural Projections to 2026 report. USDA will post online tables containing long-term supply, use, and price projections to 2026 for major U.S. crops and livestock products, and will include supporting U.S. and international macroeconomic assumptions. The short-term projections from the November 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report are used as a starting point.
 
The complete USDA Agricultural Projections to 2026 report will be released in February 2017. The complete report will include a full discussion of the commodity supply and use projections, as well as projections for global commodity trade. The early-release tables will be in MS Excel format and posted to the Office of the Chief Economist's (OCE) website at www.usda.gov/oce.

 

What do you think? Will it be helpful to know what is expected way out to 2026?

 

Mike

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14 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

They don't even know what's happening around the world today, let alone 10 years from now.  IMHO, it's a waste of time.   But, having said that, I guess they need to show the new administration that they do actually contribute something to maintain their jobs.   I will not be making ANY farm decisions based on whatever they are predicting.....however, my plans are always subject to change.

Veteran Advisor

Projection Not Prediction

No one is predicting anything.  USDA is showing that if certain trends continue there will be a certain result.  Changing people's words to suit one's own preference doesn't really change what they said.  Sadly, it seems to change what some people are willing to accept that they heard.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

Mike,

 

It is obviously useful to get an insight into how things would look if they ran out the way they seem to be now.  In the big picture, how will it affect our Farm Bill if we see certain countries change their production of certain grains?  Will we rewrite it so that we arren't subsidizing people who shouldn't be growing cotton or rice or corn?

 

Most of us won't make day to day or even year to year decisions based on the projections, but it provides a framework and perspective to use in looking at the long haul, the big picture.  Should I bring the kids into the farm?  Expand livestock production?  Get more acres?  Borrow or pay down debt? 

 

Like with any projection, as data is available and trends change we have to redo the projection.  Still, it hopefully helps keep us between the fences.

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Honored Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

While your quibbling over potato or potato, which makes no difference to anything.  Like projecting where the arrow will land or predicting where the arrow will land makes no difference to the target...

 

I been playing games over my medicare part D and being irritated that the government picks and chooses which pharmacy survives in the new global economy.

When I first read this thread about the releasing of tables back into the wild, I couldn't help but wonder who has been pre selected to be a producer in 2026?  Or how few those chosen to survive will actually need?

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

sw....look at medicare.gov, and go thru their program, enter your rx's, and push the send button..

but..can be difficult at times...if you condition changes, you'll be on a different medication, and that

upsets the applecart.

the plan D was "insurance company welfare".....it's really the companies who are deciding who is the winner and

looser.  i'm becomming quite educated on insurance/healthcare...i'm working on a project which i soon hope to be

able to share with people here, and believe it will be very good news to people in our state...but we've been thrown

into a uncertain area with the threat of changes by trump and nobody has any ideas what will happen, including

donald.

anyhow....the plan d is a boom for insurace companies...they get x amount for each person they sign up...

they then work out deals with companies...and wholesalers....yes, they do pay out small amount, but remember

most of the money is comming out of the gov...then you hit the doughnut hole, you pay, then when you

hit the cat level, they pay all.

i have a local group...which i will admit do offer many things...but they are always saying how they make no money,

and how gov stuff makes it harder and harder...they lement how "medicare makes it more difficult for them to make

money"....

i have found that some small pharmacys are cheaper on rx than the big companies, even lower than the

insurance plan cost...that is why i have mixed feelings on the locals....yes, they are cheaper on some rx's

than the insurance company listing....but on the other hand...i have a family member on oxygen at night,

medicare will pay $90 a month for the machine, well this company has opted out of being a contracting

provider on oxygen, and can charge whatever they want...so they charge $390 a month...well medicare pays

the $90.....and the supplemental picks up the $300....understand the machine is less than $700 brand new

and will run several years without problems...while another company accepts medicare, and does not

charge more, saying, what do you do with people that have the economical supplements....they can't

afford the insurance as it is, and now add another $3600 a year !!!

i have discovered on my mom....she takes two forms of insulin....lantus, and kwickpens (rapid acting), well

running things thru the machine, she would be at the doughnut hole in about june....and the lantus runs

about $380 and the kwickpens run about $400 a box...if we get the fast acting, like the kwickpens, and

use walmart brand insulin, and pay $25 buck a month out of pocket...she will not go into the doughnut

hole.

i'm starting to have a problem with some of these "helpers" on the medicare part d...nice they they can

type, but they don't understand what is available, or how things work, etc.....they just know what

the computer shows, or if done by a pharmacy, how the plan would work in their pharmacy....

 

so far for her the sliver script looks like the best....a little over $20 a month, NO up frount deductable, and

best matched her profile.

 

good luck

 

 

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Highlighted
Esteemed Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

Their analysis does not include any chaotic system input, thus it is just flat lines, always has been, completely devoid of value. This is certainly something that should be discontinued, or let a real statistician do it so that it reflects the reality of a chaotic world.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

Give me an example of how chaos affects the trend line.  My untrained brain would assume it simply changes the projection line to more like an angle, a thin wedge or pie slice, for example.  When one asserts a projection is of no value one wonders if that opinion isn't based on prior knowledge or experience and while the projection may not be of much value to the cognizenti it might well be of value to the less erudite.  So, what's to hurt?  If one doesn't need it, ignore it but why tell someone else it doesn't help them?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

The quibbling is the refusal to let words say what they mean.  If one can't understand the basis of the difference between a projection and a prediction they are refusing to accept responsiblity for their decisions and will continue to blame others for their own errors or failure to manage.

 

That is not marketing.

 

It's dead simple.  A person who pretends the USDA is predicting a price is setting USDA up to be the fall guy.  The person who accepts the USDA is projecting understands that the data must be constantly and continuously analyzed and management decisions must be adjusted as new information is availabe (and thus as new projections are appropriate).

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: USDA To Release Some 2026 Tables Early

Good question Jim. The point is simply that supply goes up and down in our markets. And our users have basically the same demand regardless. It is very inelastic. Thus, a 4% change in supply can mean a 25% change in price. When they do their projections, they show flat lines, it is just not real world. Just look at the price charts versus the demand.

 

Statistically the odds of a price spike due to supply issues in the next 2 years is very likely. It will be completely ignored in their analysis. Chaotic systems can be modeled, just not with simple trends.

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