USDA conspiracy theories

[Kstater85]

Still cant understand if there was never no way we could have a 14B crop that we went to $4.90 CZ ?   Somebody with alot of money to bet must of had very different opinions than you. 

[farmer46]

Jenny, take it easy.  Inept government is just that, Inept.  I really believe the size of Government now, will only increase the amount of bad information and government actions.

Anyway, As a corn producer I need the enduser to get some low cost corn purchases, to stay in business for the long haul.  I really think the low amount of farmer new crop selling is causing the traders to become a little unpredictable.  The real question that should be asked.  Should endusers lock in corn prices now?   Will the advisors do their job for endusers?

[c-x-1]

Cz had to search out support @ some point during the year...hope this helps.

endusers and middle users are positioned accordingly - comm.

[NDf]

Good post farmer46. Right now you can locke in $5.50 dec corn for 10 cents using OCT options looks like a good deal to me for the enduser. I bet you most won't because they hear guys like Gulke saying this crop is made and we are headed for $3.50 why waste 10 cents now.

[hardnox604008]

As far as conspiracy theories go, I have long maintained that in both 2000 and 2004 the USDA made some interesting bullish revisions to the data in the runup to the elections and subsequently backed the numbers out.

I remain a consensus of one on the matter having never found a farmer who would accept that USDA might have offered them a gift.

So anyway I guees that, yeah, I suppose I do accept the premise that data is not always 100% sacrosanct.

Best guess- the collection process is relatively sacrosanct but at the end there is some latitude for final interpretation.

[rawhide]

i don't know if i'm right or wrong but if corn goes to $4 bucks and input costs don't go down 50% i;m not going to get the planter out of the shed next year. tell that to the boys from chicago

[Longcreekfarms]

I like that frame of mind rawhide. Why should anyone turn wheels to break even or even lose money just to feed the masses? Anyone that is comfortable financially has this option year after year. Those with debt are going to plant a crop regardless of what it's worth at the end, just because thats all they know and there is a chance that they can make a dime. It's the same with owning grain storage... No need to sell until you can make a profit unless there are debt collectors beating on the door.
If corn goes to 4, my next year plans are to grow enough to feed cattle with and no more. It doesn't always work this way, but generally when corn is cheap, beef is high and visa versa.
I'm better at growing weeds anyway 😉

[pritchh]

Seems it is always out there for a sector.

I think they can't figure anything out so need someone to blame->> some conspiracy.

After 2-3 yrs of VERY strong prices, tyey think they deserve more.

Which is bearish, that sector will tend to hold back mkting and thn have to sell,

in the crunch.. 

[jennys_mn]

It's not that we as farmers think we deserve more. It's that the market is not high enough considering how short we are of corn and beans, we have weather problems, and, believe it or not, the corn is NOT IN THE BIN as a lot of traders think it is.

Also, when you consider that the ethanol plants still made money with $7.00 corn, many of them, like myself, see no reason to sell at $5.00 when in a worse case scenario we can bin it and wait for a rally next year. Maybe the end users need to realize that we have some production problems right now. And of course Texas is harvesting. Heck, after their continuing drought, the are going to need everything they produce. I rather doubt that we are going to ship Texas corn to feed our cattle in WI.

There's no if and ands about it. We farmers know there is no old crop left, other than the dribble that some of us have in our bins. We know that there have been, are, and continue to be problems down on the farm. Low prices follow excess product. I don't believe you will find any farmer that thinks we have a huge excess anymore.

Jen

[SouthWestOhio]

Farmer46 said " Inept government is just that, Inept. I really believe the size of Government now, will only increase the amount of bad information and government actions."

Are you suggesting that smaller government will make for better reporting. I would seriously challenge that thought. If USDA could afford to put more feet on the ground their reporting would be able to more quickly reflect changes on the ground. They have also said in the past that they adjust the data collected from farmers to take into account condition changes. How they could do that better with fewer people is beyond me.

I have yet to talk directly to a farmer who is a regular reporter to the USDA. I hope these reports are collected in the most timely fashion and not by snail mail. I find it crazy there is a 30 day delay from the reporting date by the farmer to the compiled release from the USDA. With today's communication and computing capabilities 7 days should be plenty, that would be something to work toward. For us in the field we know how our local conditions have changed in that 30 day period but have to rely on reports from across the growing belt for changes elsewhere.

Pretty soon the crop tours will start and we will be inundated with more real data that is also massaged by the collectors. I wish both the USDA and the crop tours would be more forthcoming on how they have made adjustments and publish both their predictions and raw data so we can feel better about what they are saying.