USDA export sales data released this morning
USDA export sales data released this morning showed showed much better than expected sales for wheat (with Brazil a big buyer), better than expected for corn and at the high end of estimates for new-crop soybeans. Below are specifics:
- Corn export sales: 12-13 reported at 336,700; 13-14 reported at 156,300. The trade was looking for a combined number between 250,000 and 450,000. Last week 133,400 metric tons of old-crop sales and 77,100 of new-crop sales.
- Soybean export sales: 12-13 reported at 14,500; 13-14 reported at 451.100. Trade was looking for a combined number between 250,000 and 550,000. Last week there was 52,600 metric tons of old-crop sales reported and 108,500 metric tons of new-crop sales.
- Wheat export sales: 13-14 sales 731,800, well above expectations, with Brazil the lead buyer. Trade was looking for a number between 350,000 and 550,000. Last week 13-14 reported at 432,700; 14-15 at 2,000 metric tons.
As for today, traders will make final changes and preparations ahead of July expirations and the highly anticipated USDA report. There could be a little early excitement in regards to the strong export sales data. I will NOT release tomorrow's report until after I have had a chance to digest the USDA numbers. Bottom-line, make your last minute adjustments, hope for the best but prepare for the worst!
CORN - Taking it on the chin!
Testing major technical support at the $5.10 are, As suspected, the USDA was apprehensive in making any major cuts to corn acreage and the bulls are noticeably disappointed.
"Resurvey" of some sort is obviously around the next corner as Iowa corn acreage is ONLY reduced by 200,000 acres, Minnesota only reduced by 300,000. Keep in mind the net fund "long position" is now the smallest it has been since 2010. IF there were to be some type of bullish "weather" story pop up they certainly have enough fire power sitting on the sidelines to cause a massive splash! The problem right now is the forecast into early-July looks to be very good for many key US growing regions. I suspect Monday's "crop condition" report will show another uptick and more downward pressure will be applied. As stated the past several weeks, continue to keep hedges in place. I am afraid we are still nowhere close to seeing the bottom of the barrel. Once the $5.00 level is breached the bears will quickly try and make the push towards the $4.50 level
Re: CORN - Taking it on the chin!
There are already new crop bids around 4.50 in parts of the country after today.
That said, I don't see any reason to be concerned about the report. Should keep demand strong for new crop corn. I would think it would be bullish for the cow-calf guy. Unless one needs to sell in the next few weeks, this is nothing that worrisome. Long term, a bullish new crop report would probably hurt us more than the one put out today. I agree the acres cut in IA and Mn look pretty small, time will tell. I just hope they don't double count corn and bean acres, since many fields were planted twice-once to each crop. I am sleeping well knowing that my crop is MUCH better than it looks, and I am going to believe that until the combine proves it otherwise.
The report is VERY BULLISH old crop supplies. Stock below last year. If I remember correctly, sold a bunch in August 2012 when Ray J. was paying 8.50. So if we had 8.50 corn and 17+ beans last year with bigger stocks and an earlier harvest, can't see that is negative old crop prices. Kind of basic math. Looks like a game a chicken, of course that means I might be the one that gets cooked. In 2008 it was the economy that took several dollars off the price, so that is always a possibility. Who needs Vegas?