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Palouser
Senior Advisor

USDA measurement of pollination problems.

I understand the USDA doesn't report ear counts until Sept, and don't want any official mention of that statistic at this point.

 

My question is how and when the USDA includes the variables for pollination, i.e. tip back, blanks, etc.

 

It would seem to me from numerous reports of pollination issues that the next monthly report is going to show another fall in yield if some of these factors were not part of this report.

 

Then there are reports of shallow kernels, etc.

 

We could easily hit 150 bu if the reports I'm hearing are widespread - as they seem they might be.

 

Again, I'm thinking in terms of trends and where the USDA methodolgy might be in this timeline.

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4 Replies
DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: USDA measurement of pollination problems.

I have heard that there are different components to the equation that USDA uses for the August estimate.  One part includes producer surveys that obviously to a certain extent would include the pollination, tip back, blank issues.  Another part is stalk counts that would not take into account those issues.  How it all comes together is anybody's guess, but I would think that the issues you mentioned along with shallow kernals should reduce the yield forecast for September, all other things being equal.

 

However, the fact that USDA doesn't do ear counts and weight until Sept. was why I was shocked by the 6 bushel drop for August.  So, many questions remain, but I expect another drop in yields for the Sept. report.

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dafeeder
Veteran Contributor

Re: USDA measurement of pollination problems.

Maybe they had a lot of complaints after the June 31st report and they didn't want to look incompetent again, like Informa.

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Artifice
Senior Contributor

Re: USDA measurement of pollination problems.

USDA has agronomists, they set up a system and make their  best guesses.

 

No one KNIOWS and people whothout knowledge poking their head in don't add anything.

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: USDA measurement of pollination problems.

Artifice, for a guy that has been consistently wrong about the crop size and the trend of the crop downward, maybe you should pull your head out (of the sand?) instead of telling others not to poke their head into this issue. 

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