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Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,208
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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USDA, sorry babe

Sorry fer doubtin` ya babe, it`s all on me, you wuz right and I wuz wrong.   Baby baby baby.

 

Stay safe out there everyone!   Smiley Very Happy

 

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,329
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: USDA, sorry babe

Are you surrendering?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,208
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: USDA, sorry babe

Only surrendering that USDA was probably closer to being right on yields than many of us thought.  Ptzeny on Market to Market said farmers are holding 700 million bu of old corn and thinking of this years crop too.   I think there`s so damned much corn that USDA doesn`t have to lie, it`d be like pouring a bucket of water on a already dead drowned man.  

 

I`m not sure what went on here, this corn seems to have "heavy kernels".  The best beans still have a few leaves and green stems, but it`ll be way into October for a killing frost ...they`ll be harvested long before that.  Poor bean yields currently are 45.

 

I guess before the seedsman encourages you to book the hot numbers at a "flat price from last year" and fertilizer that`s only $10 higher than last year.   Maybe be a "free agent" and not commit to any expense, because as it looks now, 2018 will be lean.  

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,496
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: USDA, sorry babe

The only sure thing is a crop insurance-harvest price rally.  We wouldn't want those farmers making too much money on the insurance side either.   By the looks of the market yesterday, many thought it was the stocks report that made the market go higher.   I call fake news on that one.   The insurance price discovery period starts Monday.    Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 905
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: USDA, sorry babe

BA----- my theory about the bigger yields also revolves around the heavy kernels........I can remember when many were doing yield checks in early and mid August.....and were in a quandry about how many kernels they were going to use to make a bushel....at the time the expectations were for small and light kernels......so those estimates using 90K kernel counts that in reality turned out to only needing 70-75K per bushel were off.....resulting in better yields

 

RT---with that kind of certainty about price direction, let us know how much you made on Nov 1 !!

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,992
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: USDA, sorry babe

so what is everyone saying, that it will be a big crop ?  i'm still having a problem with that, at least around here, will not be 170 bu,

unless under water...and just remember for every 1 of those 300 bu per acre, we offset it with some low production here.

 

from all the talk here the last month or so, one could have been lead to believe that there was a problem with the numbers, now

you say no ?

 

did someone go short the market ?

 

can't trust anyone, anymore.

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: USDA, sorry babe

My drive about this week was across central Ks to the kc area then north into central Iowa ..... as far as Jefferson and Ames.... One needs a guide in iowa. Normally every field looks like the next....but not this year.

I am sure the northern iowa shelf has lots of corn on it as usual but usda numbers take more than a few good areas...  And the only thing that is true in all areas(even at SF publishing) is backyard itis.....in lethal doses.

 

BA --- dont let the backyarditis depress you too far.......I had some observations...... 

 

1.  Bean acres  ....Kansas has more bean acres than usual, lots more.......... especially across the bread basket saline-hutchinson-Pratt and west to kinsley.  Looks like a lot of wheat got double cropped.  Probably tripple normal bean acres..... and an obvious decrease in milo and corn acres.

 

2 -- Corn acres Kansas has fewer corn and milo acres than normal ------ a lot fewer.....

 

3 -- Corn yields are poor across Ks.......and a lot is already in the bin..... better emporia to kc.... but few acres... and poor from kc to Winterset Iowa.... ridges and high ground is visibly poor most all the way .... Nw of des moines some nice crops, rains must have been better...... But most odd fact is that those good crops are done and ready....many acres harvested already..... or very close...

that part of Iowa will be done before Sw ks..... an oddity... that is not conducive for great yields.  And west of des moines we saw a fairly large hail damage region.  That is a sign of weather extremes that are not normally Iowa or is it a sign of great yields.   That northern Iowa shelf better crank out those 300 bu yields....

 

4 bean yields ........ Some beautiful beans in the Jefferson Iowa area...... harvest was underway a couple of days ago.

probably the only consistantly clean bean fields we saw on the trip and good consistant crop conditions.  Beginning with the hail ares west of dm fields are inconsistant and many weedy for all of the 800 miles driven... Eastern Ks has some good bean fields, but once you top the flint hills and head into the big production areas we saw more below 30 bushel fields than good bean fields.  There are some irrigated fields that will be good but the vast majority do not look good.... short and thin...... like the rough ground in southern iowa and northern Missouri.

 

Review ....... Bean acres high ....... corn acres down... corn yield weak most of the way unless irrigated and those don't look good until central Iowa.   Bean yields spotty and mostly below normal.  Corn yields inconsistent and very little green left... finishing fast.    

No matter how heavy each kernel is in many regions there are not enough of them to help the economic issues facing producers.

 

Side note....... The "monsanto effect" is bad..... 80% of the bean fields we saw will harvest weeds to get the beans.    Shorter, stressed beans that didn't canopy well is a lot of the problem but weed control in beans is an obvious problem...... Made me feel better about ours....   The bean acres are much higher than corn acres except for the Jefferson- Ames area where it appears corn held its own in the 50 to 65% split observed.

 

Sw will harvest until thanksgiving...... but Iowa could be putting equipment away before Nov 1 if they get 3 weeks of harvest weather.  I was kind of shocked to see so few green leaves on that "published" record crop.  Smiley Happy

 

 

 

 

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 15,208
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: USDA, sorry babe

SW, do you feel USDA has a handle on your area or too high?   Around here beans are moving earlier in maturity, some group 1.6, you plant them in early may or late April, they`d better be ready, group 2`s planted in early May are prime now.  But 2.4 with the fungicide and micro management will be a couple weeks.  There was germination problems due to dry planting, so you`ll see low ground (where it came up 2 weeks earlier) ready to go, but still green on hills (where sat in dry soil) so it`s a lot of hunting and pecking going on.

 

With corn the yields are better than expected because of as Ray observed "heavy kernels".  Our soil profile was full and turned very dry, but I never got a break mowing lawn, the grass never turned brown and dormant which was strange.  The corn did start running out of gas and cannibalizing, moist is dropping fast 20%.   But over 8oz of 15% grain on each ear and you get 25-32,000 ears on a acre and it`ll be a pretty fair yield.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 898
Registered: ‎11-20-2016
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Four Beans to the Pod

just walked a few steps in an irrigated field of soybeans and found half a dozen four bean pods. Used to take a long time to find any...those new extend beans must have some kick built into them.

 

Neighbor combined a field of early beans for hog manure application and they went 58 bpa...he said he was hoping for 70, though like his last year yields.

 

I doubt my corn yield per harvested acre will compare to last year's bounty...(200bpa average overall....220 plus on harvested) but I hope it makes 180.

 

I still have huge doubts about a 170 bpa national average corn and 50 bpa soybean average.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: USDA, sorry babe

BA I think usda has been low on bean acres all along. But their too high on yield so that probably washes out because lots of fringe acres won't meet those yields.
So imo it is the corn numbers that are exaggerated acres and yield.
Of the corn acres left in sw there is a big area of Texas and okla panhandle region where aflatoxin has stopped harvest with a green mold.
Personally tired of seeing white ear mold. Variety related in 2016 pioneer varieties 2017 Monsanto varieties.