1. According to the latest polls the majority of the Ukrainian people do not want to live under Russia. But also they are embarrassed with what is going on. Being victims of the Russian propaganda practically half of the population (especially in the East Ukraine and Crimea) really believe that other half of the population on the West are fascists. There is a big distrust about the new power that has come after the run off of Victor Yanukovich to Russia who now asks Russia to invade Ukraine.
The previous power under Victor Yanukovich was nothing more than a gang stealing and looting. Victor Yanukovich and his cronies actually had demoralized and weaken the army. It is a very big question: how loyal and strong the Ukrainian army is at the moment and will it give a strong repulse in case of the Russian invasion?
Nobody wants the war. There are a lot of people who survived the WWII in Ukraine.
2. A little history. I will not go back to the beginning of the Ukrainian history that goes back to Herodotus times. Ukraine had fallen to Russia in the middle of 17th century. Russia fought with Turkey over the territories that now are the South East of Ukraine and Crimea. From that times there remains about 13 percent of the Crimean population who are the descendants of Turks and are muslims. They are really afraid of Russians. After the 1917 Bolshevics’ revolt in Russia Ukraine for a short time was independent but again was conquered by Russia.
In 1954 than the Communists’ leader Khruschev cede Crimea that before that was part of Russia to Ukraine. The reason was that Crimea did not have land border with Russia and all of the fresh water and the electricity Crimea received from Ukraine. Everybody thought at that time that the USSR will live forever.
In 1977 in Helsinki (Finland) the participating countries agreed to consider the existing borders in Europe as fixed (according to the Constitution of the USSR it consisted of 15 “independent” countries with their own constitutions, governments, parliaments and borders united in the Soviet Union). Now Russia challenges the ceding of Crimea to Ukraine.
If Russia has grabbed only Crimea the Crimeans may face a big problem because of complete dependency on water and electricity supplies from Ukraine. If Ukraine cuts them off there will be a real economic, humanitarian and ecologic disaster. So from the point of strategy Russia must also annex the South Ukraine. Will it manage to achieve this is another big question.
