To your point kraft-t, Matt Pierce, a floor trader with pitguru.com says, "Massive fund longs have to be sweating with over 350K in longs in corn as of today. That's not a good sign for late-comers with the US corn crop finishing well, if not spectacular."
Look at global demand figures. I keep track more of wheat than corn or beans, but wheat has never had significant demand fall. And it does get used for feed as buyers switch back and forth.
Your floor trader must know some information about corn yields that others are still trying to figure out. Either that or he's looking at things from a technical point of view - timing. Maybe he has a 50% chance of being right in any case.
But he's a floor trader.
Note this conversation and we'll come back to it a month from now.
"Corn crop finishing well...if not spectacular"
Wow, that young man clearly is not watching any kind of quant data. Rainfall totals for example, or days from tassel to black layer, or night time temps, days above 90, or pick almost any data point. Spectacular? Hmmmm......sounds like the gent is short some calls and nervous.
Palouse is right. If you take a rational and reasonable approach to events, you can have better intel than the market at times, but not always. As to timing, my experience has been that emotion can only be maintained by humans for so long. Fear motivates action but only as a herd, and herd's get tired in just about the same amount of time that they always have.
no spectacular finish here in nw iowa. we are too far west of woden. fields of corn showing premature death. local agronomist says gosses wilt. harvest will be early and smaller than thought a month ago. night heat is good in your bedroom but not so good in your cornfield. TIME your last sentence confused me,does that mean in your view the selloff has about run its course? or that the late comers are the nervous ones? thanks. d7
Merely stating my belief that the time it takes for certain things to happen is clearly about the same as it always has been. There is often, but not always, symetry in waves of emotion.
Most recently, wheat had a 14 day basing pattern back in June, bottoming within hours of our expectation. It then had a 28 day volcanic eruption. Exactly twice the basing period. I missed it at the time unfortunately. Great symetry. Also, many will remember that 27.8 days is the .618 of the 45 trading day rhythm the markets sometimes respect. The rally toped the night of the 27th day, kind of like 27.8. OF course, some will recognize how close this is to a lunar cycle as well, OR is the lunar cycle just that close to the harmonics of the universe. Ahhh...I digress.
Human herds just can't maintain emotional energy for long, usually 21 days, sometimes 28, rarely 45, seldom more than that. Nor do natural systems, weather has real trouble not changing. Just too fluid and self-compensating.
So, the intelligent design of the universe and human psyche is the root of markets and thus they are far more predictable than some would like to admit. Not always obviously. Putting that in print of course will upset someone. It shouldn't because it is there for all to see. Just one of the beauty's of God's vast creation. You can't have a universe like this one without some amazing math behind it.
It is also important to note that no fiat paper currency has survived for long in all of history. Ours clearly will not either, just a matter of time..... When we decoupled from silver on 6/24/68, we allowed very rapid growth through reserve debt financing but also assured the currency's destruction. Of course, this is just my opinion, and worth what you paid for it. It is a simple fact, the currency will not survive, yet very, very few are taking steps to prepare for it. An amazingly human response and easy to predict.
Back to the start, we are handling these issues as a society just as all of the societies before us handled them and thus the result will be the same. Only talking about the currency and federal spending. No parties, no ideology, no religions, just a simple look at the past and the present. Again, just my opinion and I am wrong often.
Thanks for those comments. Helps me understand where your coming from when you give those timing targets.
Bruce from Ohio
jmo- endless perma bullishness loses badly thru time.
Palouser is wring.
Paraboilc HG at 210 on teh qy to 4# loses as well.
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