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Frequent Contributor

Unplanted acres

It amazes me how the reporters talk down the weather news of unplanted acres on beans like it is no big deal. Saying for instance that in other years like 2011 or 2013 their was several million that never got planted either. That may be true but beans did not trade for $8.60 bu either like they are today. That is going to make all the difference on whether those acres will be worth planting or just going PP and get 9.73 with no input cost or harvest exp.
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4 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Unplanted acres

I don't completely disagree with you.  What you are saying makes some sense.   The thing you need to account for is the fact that farmers many times out fox themselves.  $8.60 beans are not an incentive to push the envelope and plant late beans under adverse conditions instead of taking PP.  However farmer A decides to go ahead and plant the late beans because he thinks everyone else is taking PP and this will  push beans to $10.  He is afraid if he takes PP he will miss out on $10 beans.  Pretty soon farmer A has a lot of company and more beans get planted than what everyone thought.  There will indeed be a lot of PP.  How much is anyone's guess but I wouldn't count on the price of beans to raise the amount of PP by a whole lot.

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Advisor

Re: Unplanted acres

I kind of bought that argument previously but have had second thoughts.

 

OK, if an C IN farmer has a 55 APH and planting date of June 20 and an 80% policy.

 

The guarantee applies to either a planted or unplanted crop. So he's really only gambling approximately $100 of variable costs that are yet not sunk into the crop (seed, chem, equipment ops, some PK removal) versus 60% or 80% guaranteed. About the same.

 

Here we can knock off 45 plus with some luck on beans planted that late. If it were me, if field conditions were OK on or within a few days past the PP date I'd go ahead and roll the dice. Potential upside exceeds the limited downside.

 

I guess if I had a field that was in multiple years beans, heavy cyst or specific weed problems I'd sure save it until last and maybe not.

 

The market price really only applies to any extra bushels over guarantee so not a hugely compeling issue.

 

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Unplanted acres

I am in that dilemma of whether to plant this late or go PP. I will plant up to July first only if the beans are going in really great soil conditions. Saturday is our final plant date, we are wet, and rain in the forecast until Tuesday. If we can't plant in ideal conditions then we have very little chance of raising a decent crop planted this late.
Not sure where you're from Hardnox but the majority of acres that are not planted are not in the 55 bu av areas. They are in Missouri and Kansas these are 30-45 bu areas for the most part and that is planting at an optimal date, not the end of June.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Unplanted acres, I Agree, Riverlandfrmr

the pp and crop insurance dates re basically Over, Now.

 

there's unplanted Everything in the S.

 

peanuts, beans, cotton, corn etc.

 

there's also a fair amount that did get planted but is drown out 2.

 

i also wonder how much darn mold/fungus issues there's gonna be on the pecans and almonds.

 

Less, is always Less....especially on total crop sizes.;

 

 

 

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