Updated 2014 Corn Crop with FSA acres and ProFarmer Tour adjustments
I am now using a yield of 193 for IL, 179 for IA, 184 for IN, 160 for MN, 168 for NE, 180 in OH, and 150 for SD along with adjusting acres for the prevented planting shown in the August 15 FSA report and came up with a 2014 U.S. Corn yield of 167.5 and production of 13.8 billion bushel based on 82.391 harvested acres. The NE yield is down to allow for less irrigation water available in some places and the extensive hail damage in areas that were mostly outside of the tour area.
Here are some of my other states and estimates used in the 167.5 yield listed above:
AR-180, CO-150, KS-150, KY-138, LA-180, MD-158, MI-155, MS-178, MO-160, NY-150, NC-130, ND-130, PA-150, TN-148, TX-145, WI-155, AND VA-140.
I would like for those still projecting a 175+ 2014 yield to post the state yields they are using to arrive at that level of production.
I do this to try and provide some potential market perspective. I know my numbers will never be accurate but they are the best guestimates that I can come up with based on history, current conditions, recent moisture trends, vegetation maps, etc.. January 2015 is a long way off when the "final" USDA figure for 2014 is released and harvest results are known.
If the production is 13.8 billion bushel and demand rises to 13.6 billion bushel, if may mean just a 200 million increase in 2014/2015 carryout to say 1.4 billion bushel vs. the 177 yield one person is showing which would cause a 14.5 billion or higher crop and a carryout over 2 billion bushel which is price negative.
I am buying some $3.70 DEC 14 corn calls for a cost of ($.13) in order to protect a potential ARC payment or in my case to lock in a higher Revenue insurance payment as it looks like I will collect again this year. This plan is only for those who feel the $3.60 area on DEC 14 corn futures will hold through the end of October for revenue insurance or be in the low end of the price range for determining an ARC payment which appears likely in some states - consult your state college for their outlook on this as it may be something to consider and this is a fairly low cost plan. A 50% retracement of the drop in DEC 14 futures from $5.15 to $3.65 is $.75 or back to a $4.40 DEC 14 corn futures price - should the downtrend stop and an uptrend occur.
Hope this helps explain my reasons for posting.