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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Upside bias for corn

Tom White, FutureRoad.net analyst and CME Group corn pit trader sees upside bias for the corn market.

 

The market traded back and forth last week. After fairly impulsive trade to the upside for several weeks, this could be a pause in the market.  The weekly chart  shows that the market had an inside week but is still trading above the top of a Keltner channel.  We still will monitor for whether the market will eventually make a move to the middle line on the pitchfork pattern showing.  The daily chart shows that we did come back inside of Keltner channel tops last week.  But as long as we hold the middle of the channel around 460 area, we will create positive reversals keeping the market generally biased to the long side. Consolidation type trade could continue on Monday.

 

FYI: There are three steps to calculating Keltner Channels. First, select the length for the exponential moving average. Second, choose the time periods for the Average True Range (ATR). Third, choose the multiplier for the Average True Range, according to StockCharts.com.


506       1.618 range
502.4     2-week high
499       Top rule 1 pivot
495       Weekly pivot
493.2      3-day high
490.4      Pivot
489          High
486          Close
484.2-.4    Weekly and daily pivot
480           Pivot
478.4         Low
472            .618 low
470.6        .618 extension
468           Bottom rule 1 pivot
461.4        1.618 range
459.6       1.000 extension 

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

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3 Replies
c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Upside bias for corn

hey Mike,

 

I was thinking - this is same day - a yr ago - I took those photos of the emerging Corn in Williamson cty, Tx.

 

do you still have the contact over there to see if anyone's seeded yet?

 

thanks,

 

 

c-x-1

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Upside bias for corn

c-x-1,

 

I do. This week, I hope to get new planting photos from Texas. I was told, last week, that planting in Texas was behind, because of rain. We'll see Monday updated progress numbers. Also, the marketing class I attended Saturday had a few Tennessee farmers in it. And they said guys are in the fields in their areas, this weekend. The marketing class was held outside of Minneapolis. Whew! A lot of snow is still piled up, and some fields were completely flooded, in low lying areeas along I-35, upon my return to Iowa.

All the talk, amongst the farmers, was the detereorating basis prices. I heard basis prices between 30¢ to $1.40 under. And there are guys saying the ethanol plants in their areas are bought up and have said No. 1 they don't need corn and No. 2 they can't get the railcars to ship it. So, huge problems ahead, with a lot of corn still in storage. And, if we get a average to above average 2014 corn crop, a lot of corn piles will be seen around the countryside. It's potentially ugly, according to the farmers I talked to.

 

Mike

 

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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Upside bias for corn

O yeah were going up. Ukraine stuff is too intense, so money has to be made into commodity and the price rises.

This is seasonal too
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