VR Buck Production

[Doug N]

VR, could you break down a state by state yield please?  You throw out large numbers, I believe you said 177-181 if we get a rain next week.  I would like to see what each state needs to achieve to get that number.

Thanks in advance.

[425Cat]

Not gonna happen . Iowa Illinois would have to come in at 225-250

[fbf2574789]

2014 CORN PRODUCTION Prepared on: 7/24/2014 based on USDA report acres -VERY HIGH YIELDS

A. STATE, PLANTED, % HARVEST, ACRES, YIELD, PRODUCTION, % OF TOTAL, FOOTNOTE

1. AL 340.0 92.65% 315.0 125.0 39,375 0.27%
2 AZ 75.0 56.00% 42.0 195.0 8,190 0.06%
3. AR 580.0 98.28% 570.0 180.0 102,600 0.70%
4. CA 520.0 21.15% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.14%
5. CO 1,170.0 82.05% 960.0 165.0 158,400 1.09% Record by 5
6. CN 26.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
7. DE 175.0 97.14% 170.0 135.0 22,950 0.16%
8. FL 85.0 58.82% 50.0 110.0 5,500 0.04%
9. GA 380.0 88.16% 335.0 160.0 53,600 0.37%
10. ID 340.0 32.35% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.14%
11. IL 12,000.0 98.33% 11,800.0 195.0 2,301,000 15.76% Record by 10
12. IN 6,000.0 97.50% 5,850.0 190.0 1,111,500 7.61% Record by 8
13. IA 13,600.0 97.06% 13,200.0 185.0 2,442,000 16.73% Record = 182 in 09
14. KS 4,100.0 91.46% 3,750.0 160.0 600,000 4.11% Record = 155 in 09
15. KY 1,550.0 93.55% 1,450.0 155.0 224,750 1.54%
16. LA 420.0 97.62% 410.0 180.0 73,800 0.51%
17. ME 30.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
18. MD 500.0 88.00% 440.0 135.0 59,400 0.41%
19. MA 18.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
20. MI 2,550.0 87.84% 2,240.0 160.0 358,400 2.46%
21. MN 8,500.0 94.12% 8,000.0 180.0 1,440,000 9.86% Record = 177 in 2010
22. MS 540.0 96.30% 520.0 160.0 83,200 0.57%
23. MO 3,500.0 95.14% 3,330.0 170.0 566,100 3.88% Record by 8
24. MT 120.0 55.00% 66.0 130.0 8,580 0.06%
25. NE 9,300.0 94.09% 8,750.0 180.0 1,575,000 10.79% Record = 178 in 2009
26. NV 5.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
27. NH 15.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
28. NJ 85.0 88.24% 75.0 135.0 10,125 0.07%
29. NM 100.0 40.00% 40.0 180.0 7,200 0.05%
30. NY 1,160.0 56.90% 660.0 145.0 95,700 0.66%
31. NC 860.0 93.02% 800.0 130.0 104,000 0.71%
32. ND 3,050.0 93.44% 2,850.0 140.0 399,000 2.73% Record by 8
33. OH 3,700.0 94.05% 3,480.0 180.0 626,400 4.29% Record = 177 in 2013
34. OK 320.0 84.38% 270.0 140.0 37,800 0.26%
35. OR 70.0 57.14% 40.0 200.0 8,000 0.05%
36. PA 1,460.0 68.49% 1,000.0 150.0 150,000 1.03%
37. RI 2.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
38. SC 295.0 94.92% 280.0 125.0 35,000 0.24%
39. SD 5,900.0 93.22% 5,500.0 150.0 825,000 5.65% Record = 153
40. TN 880.0 93.18% 820.0 150.0 123,000 0.84%
41. TX 2,100.0 85.71% 1,800.0 160.0 288,000 1.97%
42. UT 92.0 31.52% 29.0 165.0 4,785 0.03%
43. VT 85.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
44. VA 500.0 74.00% 370.0 140.0 51,800 0.35%
45. WA 205.0 56.10% 115.0 210.0 24,150 0.17%
46. WV 53.0 69.81% 37.0 135.0 4,995 0.03%
47. WI 4,200.0 75.00% 3,150.0 165.0 519,750 3.56% Record by 3
48. WY 85.0 64.71% 55.0 135.0 7,425 0.05%

B. TOTALS 91,641.0 91.49% 83,839.0 174.1 14,597,175 100.00% prevented> 0

Here is a review using some prevented planting acres. Again, not what I expect to see in the August Crop report.

2014 CORN PRODUCTION Prepared on: 7/24/2014 based on USDA report acres with pp acres

A. STATE, PLANTED, % HARVEST, ACRES, YIELD, PRODUCTION, % OF TOTAL, FOOTNOTE, PP acres

1. AL 340.0 92.65% 315.0 125.0 39,375 0.29%
2 AZ 75.0 56.00% 42.0 195.0 8,190 0.06%
3. AR 580.0 98.28% 570.0 180.0 102,600 0.75%
4. CA 520.0 21.15% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.15%
5. CO 1,170.0 82.05% 960.0 160.0 153,600 1.12% = Record
6. CN 26.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
7. DE 175.0 97.14% 170.0 135.0 22,950 0.17%
8. FL 85.0 58.82% 50.0 110.0 5,500 0.04%
9. GA 380.0 88.16% 335.0 160.0 53,600 0.39%
10. ID 340.0 32.35% 110.0 185.0 20,350 0.15%
11. IL 12,000.0 98.33% 11,800.0 185.0 2,183,000 15.94% Record by 5
12. IN 6,000.0 97.50% 5,850.0 180.0 1,053,000 7.69% Record by 3
13. IA 13,400.0 97.39% 13,050.0 180.0 2,349,00017.15% Record = 182 in 09 -200
14. KS 4,100.0 91.46% 3,750.0 150.0 562,500 4.11% Record = 155 in 09
15. KY 1,550.0 93.55% 1,450.0 150.0 217,500 1.59%
16. LA 420.0 97.62% 410.0 175.0 71,750 0.52%
17. ME 30.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
18. MD 500.0 88.00% 440.0 135.0 59,400 0.43%
19. MA 18.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
20. MI 2,450.0 87.76% 2,150.0 150.0 322,500 2.35% -100
21. MN 8,050.0 94.72% 7,625.0 160.0 1,220,000 8.91% Record = 177 in 2010 -450
22. MS 540.0 96.30% 520.0 160.0 83,200 0.61%
23. MO 3,500.0 95.14% 3,330.0 170.0 566,100 4.13% Record by 8
24. MT 120.0 55.00% 66.0 130.0 8,580 0.06%
25. NE 9,300.0 94.09% 8,750.0 168.0 1,470,000 10.73% Record = 178 in 2009
26. NV 5.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
27. NH 15.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
28. NJ 85.0 88.24% 75.0 135.0 10,125 0.07%
29. NM 100.0 40.00% 40.0 180.0 7,200 0.05%
30. NY 1,160.0 56.90% 660.0 145.0 95,700 0.70%
31. NC 860.0 93.02% 800.0 130.0 104,000 0.76%
32. ND 2,900.0 92.24% 2,675.0 130.0 347,750 2.54% -150
33. OH 3,700.0 94.05% 3,480.0 175.0 609,000 4.45% Record = 177 in 2013
34. OK 320.0 84.38% 270.0 140.0 37,800 0.28%
35. OR 70.0 57.14% 40.0 200.0 8,000 0.06%
36. PA 1,460.0 68.49% 1,000.0 150.0 150,000 1.10%
37. RI 2.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
38. SC 295.0 94.92% 280.0 125.0 35,000 0.26%
39. SD 5,900.0 93.22% 5,500.0 135.0 742,500 5.42% Record 153 in 2009
40. TN 880.0 93.18% 820.0 145.0 118,900 0.87%
41. TX 2,100.0 85.71% 1,800.0 150.0 270,000 1.97%
42. UT 92.0 31.52% 29.0 165.0 4,785 0.03%
43. VT 85.0 0.00% 0.0 0.0 0 0.00%
44. VA 500.0 74.00% 370.0 140.0 51,800 0.38%
45. WA 205.0 56.10% 115.0 210.0 24,150 0.18%
46. WV 53.0 69.81% 37.0 135.0 4,995 0.04%
47. WI 4,200.0 75.00% 3,150.0 150.0 472,500 3.45%
48. WY 85.0 64.71% 55.0 135.0 7,425 0.05%

B. TOTALS 90,741.0 91.52% 83,049.0 164.9 13,694,675 100.00% pp of >> -900

post by citi

[Hobbyfarmer]

I'm so disappointed in Maryland this year with only 135, what happened?  Flash in the pan one year wonder?

[vrbuck]

Easily bump up North Dakota South Dakota and Wisconsin. Many of the bulls want to use them as a yield drag and it isn't going to be.

[fbf2574789]

Yea, and MN. 180 I'm sure isn't enough. The drowned out spots will easily do 200+ to make up for the lighter soil that smoked off.

[Doug N]

MN will not make 180.  I'd say ND at 115-120 is a good guess.  SD I'm not sure but would guess a lot of too wet early now getting fairly dry.  I would think maybe Missouri falls into that category as well?

I asked you to lay out a state by state breakdown of where you see yields that can translate into a 178-181 national yield.  Not sure how you justified that by mentioning 3 states that are smaller players in the grand scheme.