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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Venture a guess??

It is the weekly countdown to a report next tuesday that is a little more important that usda's job sustaining releases.

 

How will the commodities markets react if the non traditional candidate wins the nationwide protest vote Nov. 8th??

 

Or is it a non event.... either way?

 

 

 

 

Is globalization a natural event that will go on or is it dependent on a political position.....??

 

Or is the political position we have taken just an idea that scams the globalization process ??

 

And finally is globalization affecting commodity trade at all?  Or is it just a catchy phrase used for political gain??

 

Sorry it is just where my mind is this week....... There have been few elections that felt like there was much choice in my lifetime.

This one has actually been a breath of "fresh air"-- irony intended.  Better than the stinch of two very overripe political parties that filet the backbone out of every candidate...

 

We're all wondering where to be positioned in the markets.  Lets talk about it in respect to marketing...

 

 

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6 Replies
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Venture a guess??

1) I think financial markets will react quite negatively if Trump wins. Probably be a quick upside pop if Clinton wins- primarily as disaster hedges are lifted- but not much in the way of legs.

 

2) While "agriculture" has been the #1 grass roots proponent of globalization and trade (always nice for corps to have some guys in overalls to testify before congress) it has certainly underdelivered as far as farmers are concerned. Might want to cancel your FB insurance or something.

 

3) Globalization and trade peaked recently, as evidenced by trade data. Stuff like TPP and TTIP are more geoplitical than they are economic.

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Highlighted
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Venture a guess??

I'll bite hard one, how has globalization and trade "under-delivered" for the farmer? At least half the land value is due to exports probably. I just can't grasp your statement making any sense.

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Venture a guess??

Yes, Hardnox, please do tell!

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Venture a guess??

And how does commodity exports even figure into the globalization picture since it existed prior to globalization in nearly the same form?

 

Is globalization just a political and corporate issue?  Allowing corps to operate across bourders without restrictions, pay taxes and reside where they can get the best deal?  A good deal except for the political kick backs.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Venture a guess??

The farmer is one of the very very very few "winners" in free global trade...probably the only "blue collar" winner anyway.  But trade is like a good news/bad news joke..good news is if we buy foreign made I-Phones, computers, tv`s and oil filters, they will in turn buy 1/3 of our grain.  The Bad news is that it will be below our cost of production most of the time. 

 

Commodity groups work hard to increase ag exports and we can afford to put an addition on the house, which we can use to take in our brother-inlaw who has lost his job at the factory.  It`s also a 2-way street, because with $14/lb ribeyes and lowest cow numbers in 70 years, we are a net importer of beef.

 

My rose colored glasses have a crack   Smiley Happy

 

image.pnghttp://corpserun.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/rose_colored_glasses.jpg

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Venture a guess??

If you're a US pork or poultry corporation, perhaps a bit.

 

But if the US didn't export a quarter of pork and poultry production then we'd export the grain for somebody else to produce it. But we do get to keep the manure and have some low wage jobs.

 

LDP was a total failure as even subsidizing cheap prices didn't buy market share.

 

What I said is different than saying that now that we've built that capacity we should undermine it- but starting from 0 it hasn't done a lot for rural Amnerica as the '95 strategic plan promised.

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