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Jason-B-Meeker
Frequent Contributor

Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

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6 Replies
kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

I would rather bet on the determination of the american farmer to get the crop planted even if they are faced with adverse conditions.

 

Rather than acres lost, I would be more concerned about limited yields by weather related conditions. Even ours that was planted in season may show potential yield loss even with a week or so delays. Others that were delayed far longer may produce decent yields with a late maturity and high drying cost. It still depends on how mother nature treats us from here on out.

 

I wonder about denitrofication on fields that have been over wet for too long. Don't mean to sound pessimistic but the crop isn't in the bin yet and may not fill the bin when harvest does occurs.

 

About the determination. I marvel at ag producers that will certainly strive for big yields even when they know the huge yields may ruin price. Yet these years with exceptional prices are going to do nothing to deter that determination. I have to admire the american farmer for their persistance even against what seems like insurmountable odds. You getr done guys!

marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

Before anybody corrects me, I want to correct myself. On this video report, I mention that the USDA pegged U.S. 2011 corn acres, in March, at 90.0 million. That's wrong. They actually estimated corn acreage at 92.178 million. Though the June Acreage corn number is expected to be around 90-91.0 million, there are some that believe "11th hour" planting could provide for a surprise on June 30.

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

Kraft-t,

 

You sound like traders and analysts. They are saying the same thing. It's more about what the yields are going to be than acres. Actually, the market is eyeing stocks too. That's why, as I mention on the report, don't underestimate the June 30 Quarterly Stocks numbers.

 

Mike

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

its all about demand.............don't care if you want to play the planted acre game, harvested acre game, or yield game............

 

corn crop will be under 13B and soya likely 3.1B or less..............

 

depending on demand, depends on whether you think those 2011 production numbers are bullish or not........

 

not cheerleading, just stating what I think............which has not changed........

 

as a sidenote......another 2-3 inches of rain this morning.......lakes are still forming........and this is not a local problem anymore.......

 

 

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

mike, tell the traders that a wet june= shallow roots. we will be ok HERE if it keeps raining. but wet spots showing up here and there in one of the garden spots of  iowa.(nw iowa).  many, many areas are more challenged  than here. if the rain shuts off prior to july 15th, we may slip into trouble.and we cant get any good sun! many days with out rain are cloudy or at best high thin clouds reducing what we need, sun and heat. this crop might still end up big, but it will be butt ugly wet. i know the market doesnt worry about drying charges per se, but running goo thru a dryer ends up with loss of quality and quanity.  we are under a flash flood watch tonite. all is not well on the prairie! rant finished. and my prayers are with those that have it tougher than here, and i know there are many of you. stay strong!

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nwobcw
Advisor

Re: Video - Marketeye previews the June 30th USDA Report

   How right you are kraft.  The farmer is about the only businessman who strives to produce more when prices are high due to shortages.  An astute person would keep supplies limited ensuring pricing power.  Plan for profit per acre, not bushels per acre.

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