WARM DRY WINDOW OVER MIDWEST IN 6-10 DAY FORECAST COLLAPSING

[WXRISK]

The big change in the forecast   has  to do with the dry 6 to 10 day forecast.  Things look much wetter ---  especially over the  WCB -- on all the weather models this morning .

Yesterday the weather models showed a new strong cold front moving into the Upper Plains and   Midwest  APRIL  30 - MAY 1.    This cold front  delayed the  warmer and drier  6-10 day    interval  for a day or two BUT the  warmer  drier pattern   was still there.

The WED morning weather models have now slow down   the  s cold front  and be cause they do so.. the models develop  andUpper Low   over the   WCB portion of the Midwest in the 6-10 day which ends up dropping significant rain over this area.

The 0Z   EUROPEAN   MODEL     has a  a large area  of 1-3"/ 25 to 75mm over 80% of the  WCB.

6Z   GFS    MODEL   RAINFALL FORECAST FOR 6-10 DAY 
note the   large area  of 1-3"/ 25 to 75mm over 80% of the  WCB
. http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/06/pcpsums/0120/GFS_06_opUS_PS_0240.png

The 11-15 day  is   NOT   as dry as it was yesterday. It is not as wet as the last several weeks have been but it's also not a completely dry looking map either.

[c-x-1]

thank you for your reporting WXRISK!

ARE YOU ABLE TO PROVIDE LINK TO WEBSITE WHICH INCLUDES THESE 2-3 MODELS WHICH UPDATE TWICE/DAY for us who don't know where you obtain....or is it a product you have to subscirbe for?

thank you so much

[WCMO]

Here's one/two --

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cae/FireWx/extended.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[c-x-1]

thx, WCMO

i think he might have a subscription

[c-x-1]

gfs is considerably wetter than NOAA

[kyjlong]

Both are NOAA sites that don't have subscriptions-both opened OK for me.

[jec22]

WX, when I read your post yesterday, I thought, "what are you smoking?"

  Get up this morning and the local station just changed the forecast, from warm and dry to, warm, maybe some rain today(got a little last night) and rain chances Monday, Tues, Wed and then turning much below normal temps the end of next week.  Guess they got your memo. 

I haven't had good experiences with planting corn into ground that the temps drop right after planting.   But it would be great to get a window to get fertilizer on.  Zero days so far of any field work of any kind.  I really can't remember that happening before, but trusting my memory is not always a good thing.

I am beginning to wonder after watching this year after year, if the grain markets just don't sell off every year at this time, because so many trade the seasonals. 

[WXRISK]

JEC22..

  the thing is  WEATHER  is NOT   based on POPULAR   opinion. ...  and    following ANYTHYING  the weather channel says

is   always  going to be  really   a bad thing to do .

[farmer46]

Where I live NE Wisconsin.  Compaction is a real problem in Spring.  Go in the field too early and pay the price all year.

[c-x-1]

wx,

if there is any way you could post a link to where u get maps/data......be much appreciated!

thanks