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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

WASDE Today, place your bets!

Will they be more Pro Farmer or more double down?   They pretty much have to lower yields, but then fiddle with acres, exports and feed to balance the books.

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15 Replies
docharing
Veteran Contributor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

Looks like the USDA says Corn and Beans both lower in yield and acres ! Will we see a bounce...?

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

I would bet that small crops get smaller. 

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lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

Corn up only 11 cents while beans up 75??

Wesley.jpg

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erikjohnson61y
Senior Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

IMHO, USDA doesn't like to make big adjustments, even if they feel they are warranted.  Better to gradually approach accurate than make a big jump, which could rattle markets. Also, things could change and the last thing they want is to be wrong the other way from the last report. IMO, this is also why big crops get bigger and small crops get smaller. 

"Small moves, Ellie. Small moves."

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

It sounds like beans were the big surprise, which pulled corn up more than anything, whole bushel of beans lower than trade expectations.  Beans will have a inversion as harvest looms in February in S.A.   Rationing will have to take place at some price.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

SO ,  when  do  the  EXPERT  analysis ,  hold  water ,  prior  ,  current ,  or  forthcoming  ?  ? ? 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

The Comstock Report has been the only advisory that has been steadfast bullish all through this.  Even Sue Martin wavered a little and advised taking some cookies.   USDA seems to want a orderly, incremental market, no "limit up" days for a week, they want endusers to have a chance.   While we didn`t have limit ups, this was good news for those who have to cash market off the combine.... Merry Christmas!

But there are headwinds, the railroad strike, strong Dollar (Fed may raise rates 3/4 pt ) recession (cutting feed demand) maybe big crop coming in southern hemisphere 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

And poof it was gone.

Bean plant went to minus 20 basis today 

The whole gain pencil whipped into oblivion.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: WASDE Today, place your bets!

I suppose the switch was flipped to new crop.  Endusers figure they can limp & crawl another week or two.   Paul Yeager on Market to Market said on last Friday`s show he saw a bean field taken out.  Mine are going to be awhile and that`s fine with the forecast.

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