Not overall, ------------------------------- Last year was more localized and avoided the central corn belt.
Two contrary things happened last year.
1 the cash market reflected the loss of wheat crop here and in other portions of the world in 2011. And by august the cash market started reflecting the loss of crops in south america. ---Basis was in new territory
2. Usda failed to recognize the wheat losses and overall crop losses in the southern US. And for the most part failed to recognize South America's problems. And with the corn belt coming in with some decent corn and beans ----got by with it for a while. The market would have stayed moderate to lower had this year come in some what normal.
---------------------------------------------------------
thoughts
I question that we realize early enough how big the time delay built in to the usda reporting system.
In a fast change in corn supply,----say 2B surplus with a 3.4 to 5 billion drop in a one to two year time frame, does price do all the demand reduction, or does lack of available supply make the decision to go out of the market by an end user regardless of price. Liike that alcohol plant that Smokey reported planning a shutdown for October; How much of that decision is price related and how much is just not enough supply to work effeciently in the next few months? Would they stay in the game if the price were the same and supply in the southernarea were better--------like last year?
