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Advisor

Wasde report Monday

Where do you guys think corn and beans are going? Will you be a seller if there is a rally?

Personally, beans are going to go up again.

I think corn may too!

Wheat is still too iffy
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Honored Advisor

Re: Wasde report Monday

It's time for that to be true  --------- leaning that way too

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Wasde report Monday

Farmerguy, Im just wondering at what point should I contract some new crop beans. My local elevator is around $10.70 right now. Im thinking $11 would get me to forward sell some beans with the hope its my lowest priced sale of 2014. What do you think?

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Advisor

Re: Wasde report Monday

I'm of the mind that you don't sell things until you see a technical change to the downside, and establishment of a downward trend. IF old crop ending stocks are lower, then the carry in will be lower in new crop, causing some upside or take acres from corn, which adds to corn prices

 

Having said that, I also believe you really need to look at cost of production, and making sure high interest debts, like machinery loans  are paid before you attempt to gamble and store crop, hoping for a rise in price. Making decisions under pressure can really cause you to make poor ones. I've learned that money doesn't always need to be deployed. Sometimes, you just need to have money on hand so that you can store crops, or rent/buy the right parcel of land, and not just what is available at the time. Storing corn is making a tonne of money against selling at harvest.

 

But having said that, we have a long time to make sales. The seasonal tendency is to rally into spring from the winter, and to peak around August in soybeans. Granted, big South American crops do weigh in on new crop beans if there are big crops. We are having a small amount of trouble, but I would need more time to confirm exactly what trend is going to persist.

 

I have a very small amount contracted, and for the most part I believe I am just going to let it ride. Better yet, corn basis is improving locally and may prompt a switch to corn if it continues. Historically, corn basis has really sucked hard, due to plentiful production.

 

For beans, I am just going to let it ride until we see some downward movement. I have every intention to sell every acre at harvest. I do the long hauls at harvest, and I can get 12.25 for harvest delivery. But I also can put 45 tonnes on the road legally with b trains in this province if need be.

 

I sold a very small amount at 11.75 because I saw that many USA guys were wishing they could get in the 11s, and took that as a good indication that I was making a small correct decision. If you can make money, your making a good decision. The more variables you can eliminate however, like price, yield, and acres, the lower the risk of the enterprise. Unhedged, unsold operations are very high risk ventures. Crop insurance and forward sales allow for much lower risk probabilities. Many extremely low and high yields are very low probabilities when you plot them in standard deviation charts. 2012 was an extreme outlier, about a 1 in 100 probability. For me, a corn yield of anything below 122 is an extreme outlier, and anything above 178 is also extreme.

 

Anyways, I would just get back to the basics. I am really negotiating on costs here and making sure the basics are perfect, like timing, labour, etc. You could probably get them to give you a few more cents if you bugged them, if not, phone somebody else. I just try to be a whore for making a profit, because if you don't somebody will make money off of you. If you walk into the room, and dont see the sucker, then it is you!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Wasde report Monday

I admire that --------------- I find it easy to sell some right along to reward a rising market---- but selling on down turns is hard to read.

 

Sometimes they begin with a rumor started by "someone" in washington 4 months before planters role, (when the pipeline is empty.)

 

I am always halfway down the first big hill on the rollacoaster before I can say "ya this is it".

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Advisor

Re: Wasde report Monday

its really hard to let it go when all you see is things going up and then down. A lot of guys were against forward selling wheat jan-feb 13 when the wheat rally started to crumble, and i started a thread about it. That was the time to sell. Everyone didn't want to listen to pritch when he argued against palouser's position. and when I posted a thread about 13 and 14 and 15 wheat being at good prices everyone thought it was crazy, given the drought conditions.

 

all you can lose is the limit that day. sometimes that is enough to make something happen.. but there are usually quite a few up moves before that big down one.

 

nobody actually knows what is going to happen. if people knew what was going to be the winning investment, then they would not have to diversify. no one would talk about risk management.

 

nobody knows what is going to happen, we can only guess. not even the big high rollers like Warren Buffet can actually tell you with certainty what will happen. its a matter of how much of your own future can you leave up to chance?

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