Well I had some time to read the state by state data from USDA and I see a few interesting things.
1. While on ag.com we tend to here from the corn belt "I will stay with my rotation" and "The change is on the fringe"
USDA disagrees, While Corn acres go down in nearly every state, the majority of the usda reduction comes from the corn belt I states. Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota are 1.65 million of the 4 million acre reduction. Add Missouri and you have over half of all the reduction. Not what we here on ag.com.
2. Kansas is the only state increasing acres of corn in the midwest ----- I don't believe that. The state with higher average input costs and depleting water supply, and other than N Dakota, is suffering throught the worst of the BASIS problems. Pretty sure there is a switch of acres going on here as well.... nothing but land got cheaper.
3. The south shows the acre reductions in corn that were expected by cotton increases in Texas and Oklahoma.but not in Arkansas, yet the reports we get say cotton comes back to arkansas. Also beans are increased in Arkansas so Arkansas sees 303,000 acres of land planted that was not planted at all in 2016....... somehow I doubt that.... beans may be over reported here by 303K acres.
4 Indiana, also found 280,000 acres not planted last year (to c, b, cotton, milo or wht) . With no reduction planned for corn and a 350K increase in beans, something is over reported...Is that possible ECIN or Time?
5 Texas shows the massive swing to Cotton, and a 450K acre decline in corn, but increases planted acres by half a million.
I don't doubt the cotton number but where did the additional acres come from..... wheat? or beans? grain sorghum?
6 and for a smile ....... Kansas is planting 500,000 less acres of anything and texas is increasing acres by 500,000 of anything. That is definitely wrong.... The wind blows the other way.....
