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Senior Advisor

We are firmly in a weather market.

Here and other places around the globe. Physical fundamentals rule the day and may for the rest of the year if some conditions don't at least start to average out.

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Honored Advisor

Re: We are firmly in a weather market.

Palouse....we have been in a weather market since the Russian wheat failure last summer.

I happen to love weather markets, they are pretty easy to understand and easy to count.


Probably have a frost scare run in wheat coming for a few weeks, maybe 11 trading days would

be normal.


But you are indeed correct, it is weather and all weather and the market will, as it always

does, peak BEFORE the weather changes. just fwiw


These are the best of times, yet the worst of times for others. It is always that way at

the top of the ag cycle.

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Senior Advisor

Re: We are firmly in a weather market.

If we have a poor corn crop then we will see a 'top' at some later time lasting quite awhile. We could have multiple 'blow off' tops - or at least that's the way we will experience it.  If we have a good corn crop then the scenario will be quite different, though we may still have to look out a few years for hopes that inventory will eventually grow to comfortable levels.


If there is serious drought in the EU this year then all bets are off. I'm not predicting this, I'm just saying that the 'top' may be very unpredictable.  If wheat in N America continues being caught between drought and wet and cold then,  while other problems persist, much misery will be endured. Any of the scenarios on their own would have their own story line. Multiples would be very intense.


There is time for all this to be mitigated by better conditions. I'm no longer looking for a top. I'm going for the ride and evaluating the influences as they play. I'm not worried about any downdrafts in the short run. July will be pivotal.

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