We have issues Marketing Local vs Big picture

[sw363535]

Palouser,

A little more thought on my ending stocks is a local issue.

I think there is a reason why USda and most of the merchandising (marketing consulting) advisers do their best to get us to look at the national numbers and world numbers.  

Today in Finley ND corn basis june delivery is - 1.00  and at Marshall, Minn.  -0.50.  And at Dalhart, Texas 850 miles sw it is +0.89

But take a stop at Hugoton, Ks only 742 miles down and at the Seaboard Feed Mill spot delivery basis is +$0.93 

Let me help----- that is $5.40 bu -- the same price I was selling corn for in that area a month ago

3 things ------ 1st a marketer needs to study basis trends and seasonal basis movement in his area and know what those are for every commodity he might possibly think about raising. BEFORE he or she ever listens to a marketing advisor. 

2nd  Try to determine whether a marketing advisor is out to maximize your per bushel sales dollars or is he procuring bushels for someone else at your expense.

3rd   Listen to marketing advisors.  Then realize if you know the local markets and seasonal basis trends and have a reasonable ability to assess risk.   it is not hard to market at an above average level ---- yourself.   Unless you are one of those who always needs someone to blame for mistakes.

Myself, I have always found comfort in carrying my own responsibility.  

[bkadds]

Nice post sw!

[sw363535]

Thanks bkadds --- wasn't sure I expressed what I was thinking.....

It just seems to me that nearly all marketing for producers is a local issue and more and more Basis is starting to carry the load for actual fundamental adjustment to supply and demand.  While the futures market are the best indicator of the believeablity of press releases and emotional trends.

An exec with fcstone told me several years ago that "If you have storage or can afford to rent it, chart local basis trends and seasonal changes in basis."   

Bkadds ---- I get real discouraged when I see our local producers taking marketing advice that makes sence for the northern corn belt and thinking they have insite that fits all producers.

[elcheapo]

Ok, help me figure this one out. I'm not
Having a good day (or night posting at
This time of day)

On wheat today (and cutting going on)

National chain. 7 miles away 0 basis

Little coop 12 miles away. -25 basis

Big coop with 100 car train loading facility,
Local elevator. -11 basis

Grain terminal 48 miles away. +15 basis

Now, they tell me there is plenty of grain,
wheat is usually lowest at harvest, due
In part to basis.

If they didn't want it, why have good
basis at harvest, they "want it"
Why, only one reason, they want control
And the reason for that.....they see
Down the road to make something

[sw363535]

Feb through May the futures market maybe--recognized problems in the 2014 wheat crop.  But in May the crop tour press release told us the crop was not that bad.  Now at harvest we have strong basis 

our area is similar to elcheapo on diversion of basis but the information that is vital is ----What is normal basis?  Basis for us averages -60 to -70 at harvest time.   If we are awash in wheat it can approach -1.00.  If we need it for feeding or export it can be -.25 or better.

[elcheapo]

Sw I supppose you already know this, but
On the ksu extension website, AG manager,
Their current AG market person, obrian, has
The.basis charts for locations accross state.

[sw363535]

Thanks elcheapo  I will look for them.  

The same friend said you better do em yourself so I never looked for a public source.  And our area is pretty unique.

Thanks 

[k-289]

On average costs for a 785 mile haul @ $ 1600.00 truck freight rate ---