cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Palouser
Senior Advisor

We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

..... as the first real heat builds. Freeze and drought issues will become more clear as stress take ahold and the plants and damaged tissue die.

 

Beyond that I'm getting the idea that the real threat to SRW will be disease in the form of scab and rust.

0 Kudos
6 Replies
colorofmoney
Frequent Contributor

Re: We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

Talked to a friend of mine in south central South Dakota yesterday Brule County, near Chamberlain.  Zeroed out his winter wheat, he said that the adjuster said most of the county is a loss.  Should be a fun summer.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

Winter Wheat Shows Little Freeze Damage
 
05/14/2013
 

A new government report says just under half the Kansas winter wheat crop shows no damage from the hard freezes that hit the state in April.
 
     But Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service also reported Monday the wheat is running about three weeks behind normal development amid unseasonably cool spring temperatures. The agency rated the crop as 21 percent very poor, 20 percent poor, 31 percent fair, 25 percent good and 3 percent excellent.
 
     Farmers took advantage of a few dry days last week to plant and prepare fields, although they're getting a late start.
 
     Corn planting is running well behind average at only 31 percent complete. Plantings of sorghum, soybeans and cotton were all only 1 percent completed.
 
     Pasture conditions remain poor to very poor across 60 percent of Kansas. 

 

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

That entry from a Kansas news source is what I would call "putting a positive spin on a wreck.

 

If half of the state has freeze damage-------- totalled in half of that ----------- How does the state expected yield only fall from 45 bpa to 41 bpa

 

 

.Pasture conditions in SW KS                       photo.jpg

0 Kudos
Artifice
Senior Contributor

Re: We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

A view HRW is a bit more in question, but

 

1. SRW is a weed, hardy,  hard t0 kill, it takes extremes in conditions.

 

2. TRENDLINE yields  mean average, not ideal. Every year there are some areas harmed by bugs, disease, too hot too cold. Too ,,,,,, . But looks like a good crop is a coming, freeze damage of the last 2-3 wks was nil. It takes a lot of COLD to do real harm, especially for the collective. CBT trades the collective, not a troubled area.

 

Supply demand balance sheet is moving negative. Wheat peaked in Jan 2011, look at roll adjusted data. Hedgers have done well harvesting permia paid  by wheat is better than IBM types. Those types are smacked  again.

 

IM) IMHO SRW only hope for much better is a corn drought. We saw record SRW feeding in 12-13, excellent, it filled some void. The world works.

 

AG ECON 001, high prices attract greater production and quell use, once ‘mo nature cooperates, supply rises, prices fall. 

 

Mr palouser, scab and rust harm some individual areas and some farms  but  how much collective damage is at risk other than any other year ?  .5% or less. ?

0 Kudos
Artifice
Senior Contributor

Re: We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

  1. The pasture conditions of teh last 2 now 3 yrs is miserable.
  2. I thought we would see even more cow/calf  op liquidation.
  3. #s are down but   ..
  4. Sympathies to those effected.. must feel like the dust bowl yrs.. 
0 Kudos
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: We'll soon know the true condition of wheat on the southern Plains ......

I would say more is at risk than appears at the moment. Rust and scab are relatively late developing diseases. There are very good conditions for scab reported in Illinois, and I know that the Delta area has had unending heavy rains which were bad enough to put the brakes on early corn. Given that the corn belt has endured similar conditions I would expect scab to be a potential issue from north to south for SRW. Now, that isn't a prediction but what I would call a likelihood. Simply put - we'll see soon.

0 Kudos