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Advisor

Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Hard to see the justification when the market has recently offered prices that are historically quite profitable for all but the highest COP acres. 

 

Might be a few guys that'll have to cut back to two cruises a year, though.

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Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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As I've said, my personal history of refuge hybrids vs. super triple dipple says about 10 bpa which is about a breakeven at $4.

 

There's a good place to get your setaside, just eveybody quit planting the fancypants stuff. Which isn't much more realistic than the eternal voluntary setaside movement.

 

But as I also pondered, the agro-industrial complex also pulled a real interesting little backdoor trick by tying everything to APH.

 

I'll not argue against the fact that until marginal returns go sharply negative you may be well advised to just keep buying yield.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Hey Ken, if we`re talking a +200 bu crop @ $7 ...$1400 gross there is alot of wiggle room and you can chase 4 bushels here and 12 bushels there.  But, if we deal with the "$3 corn" many of the gurus here are saying, it`s time to go to survival mode.

 

We`ll get through this year okay, (knock on wood) in NCIA there will be +200 yields whole field even with a drown out here and there, even with $3.50 in October that probably won`t even trigger a revenue crop insurance claim...so we`re good this year.

 

It`s planning for next year, if the C.I. guarantee is $3 in March 2015.  Some tough choices will have to be made.  If you are corn on corn, with a rootworm issue perhaps it`s time to start rotating crops to break the cycle.  With fungicide maybe there`s no yield response, maybe there`s 12 bushel, but with $3 corn is that a good bet? 

 

If you do everything cheap as possible and can dial in 150 yield, with favorable weather a +200 yield or do everything "they" tell you with the hope of 300 bushels...that`s a decision that`s different for everyone .

 

The gurus will say "if you think you have 200 bushels coming, think it`s going to $3..isn`t it a no-brainer to sell now at $4.02????    Well I`m doing nothing that is my choice on marketing, but then again the gambling casinos would go broke if everyone was like me  Smiley Happy   I just take what I get and bitch about it the rest of the year.

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Senior Contributor

Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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It would be a temopary fix only with an out come much worse than now. Resent high prices spurred production in other parts of the world that would ramp up considerably if we tried something like you proposed. If you thought it was difficult to organize U.S. farmers try doing it world wide.

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Honored Advisor

Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Actually it would be a God send to them.

 

 $3 anything corn here would all but break the Brazilians from raising any corn for export. 

 

SA would ramp up production to fill the void. Twenty years ago that would not have been the case, today it could happen in six months. 

 

Nice try, no cigar

 

 

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Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Although the Real is trending cheaper, which negates that to a degree.

 

Which speaks to what I've said about there being too many variables for the smart guys to create bulletproof policy.

 

LDP didn't work as it was supposed to in enhancing export demand- partly because of a very strong dollar.

 

Also, once you bring land into production it stays in production until the marginal return to fixed costs goes negative.  Usually for a while- always somebody willing to throw the dice until money makes them stop.

 

 

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Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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And if economics force them to grow beans on those acres, beans get cheaper and more corn gets planted in the US.

 

It's sort of the ethanol era "bid for acres" in reverse.

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Honored Advisor

Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Last week on my drive about from here to the pan handle of Oklahoma , I saw two things happening in big numbers. Combines running and probably even a bigger deal was all the planters running. Mostly Milo I'm sure But some beans as well. The feed grain crop was still getting larger for the fall harvest. 

 

Large areas of great land being planted AND many of those acres have gotten rain.

 

My little slice of heaven out there has received from about five inches to over seven so far this month. Can't get one planted because of mud. (Got another point9 on it this morning.) Might have to just put wheat on it this fall.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Well made for a good topic?? ♨️😱👍😠😎👏👏👏
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Re: We need to start a new Ag movement???? Mandatory 50% set aside

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Does anyone remember the Russian grain deal? That deal caused alot of turmoil with the costs of land and machinery going out of site.  When crop prices became normal costs did not. 

I enjoyed reading all your comments.  You all brought me back to my roots, on a North Dakota farm.

How would you like to be able to raise a good crop will less moisture?  Get high yields?  Top quality crop every year?

Safe among children and pets?  Help you reclaim unproductive land?  Have less of a need for spray? Stop the polution of water through run off? Save thousands every year? Build up your soil every year?  Dale Lehfeldt  dalecarl35@yahoo.com

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