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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Weather Pressures Prices

So, I learned a long time ago, in the general news reporting business, that if you see a fire you should stop and cover the story. Most of the time this scenario plays out when you are driving home from work, or you just finished your news shift.

 

In ag, those 'fire' stories sometimes are actual grass fires or a combine fire. But, the other type of 'fire' stories are when you see absolutely amazing looking crops, like the ones that I have been driving by all season long. I couldn't take it any longer, so I snapped this photo, from southcentral Iowa today.

 

I mean, it's not just the crop that is so rich-green looking, but the ditch next to it is very green.

 

I was on a crop tour, one year, and a meteorologist shared with me that if you want know how the moisture is doing in that area's fields, just look at the grass in the ditches, along the side of the road.

 

Granted, this farmer sprayed right next to his field, in the picture below. But, I'm talking about the ditch.

 

IowaCornJune.jpg

 

CornClub.jpg

 

CornDitch.jpg

 

Anyway, the market is trading weather, right now, and summer has not even arrived on the calendar.

 

Right now, it's not just the height of the corn, but the plush green color it carries that has to have investors thinking about a big crop.

 

I know, I know, this country and the world for that matter is "One Big Field". So, this is just the area of the One Big Field that I'm talking about. If somebody were to post a picture of Brazil's safrihna corn or Russia's wheat, the illustration would tell a much different story.

 

But, again, this is one 'fire' that I could not just drive by without making note of it.

 

Note to investors, if you're out there: There is a lot of weather left, before the combines roll. This 'fire' could quickly be put out.

 

And, because I practice balanced reporting, Scott Irwin, University of Illinois economist, is reminding folks in this piece that not much should be made of early crop conditions. Thoughts on early season crop conditions.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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9 Replies
futurestrader92
Veteran Contributor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

Heard from an elevator owner this morning possible 300 bushel an acre corn in central iowa. 

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lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

Thanks for the pics Mike - that does look great.  Not as tall in our area of SCMN but looking good too.

 

Let's see if we can get some pics from the 2 rows of counties on either side of the IA - MN border.

Talked to a guy this morning that drove from Mankato to Rembrandt, IA, then to Brewster, MN and back yesterday.

Water standing everywhere.

BA - how you holding out?

Hobby - your stream out of its banks?

 

Wonder how long it takes for all this water to reach the Des Moines River?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=DMX&loop=yes

 

 

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

Somewhere in the back of my mind, the phrase "Never count your chickens before they are hatched" rings in my head.

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gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

I'm impressed with some one knowing about the metropolis of Brewster.Smiley LOL

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

Only 15 off the wheat market again,....

Mike maybe you should take another
Drive from SW ks into the tx and ok
Panhandles

Amazing...aways stories and quotes about
Big yeilds....but when so so or bad... funny
Not talked about

Oh yes, need to be positive..keep everyone happy
There are no problems here.
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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

So, you missed the part about Russia's wheat, Brazil's corn? And, you can throw in China's dried up soybean crop

 

Mike

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deasmatt90
Senior Contributor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

Futurestrader92 do your DD. Are u new to trading?
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WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

300 bu/a corn is 'possible' here too, but not 'likely', nor even 'probable', the chances are not even 'statistically significant'.

 

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Weather Pressures Prices

Corn is made in July, beans in August some say.

 

We have about one more weather outlook to see the odds on pollination.  Make it through pollination and we could have bad drought and heat, but to me that sounds like two more weather events for corn at the most.  Not counting hail etc but that is usually a small area.

 

Soybeans I don't see any big disease problems yet.  We're not out of the woods but so far so good.  Weather in August is too far out to call.  So say maybe two weather events for soybeans at the most.

 

What do you guys think?  Close or is your experience different for corn and soybeans?

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