Weather and Markets

[JimMeade]

The University of Illinois has an interesting article suggesting farmers may have to adapt marketing practices to changing weather pattern.

UI says weather for the last 20 years has been rather benign, with only 2012 a bad year.   Farmers have gotten used to selling based on seasonal trends with a high expectation that they will have a good crop.  UI says evidence shows weather is likely to get stormy in the next 20 years so farmers might want to be cautious about selling very much ahead.  There may be more bad weather years coming and an aggressive early marketer might find him or herself upside down.

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/06/role-of-weather-in-the-corn-price-pattern-over-time.html?ut...

" History suggests that a period of more frequent and larger negative yield deviations than that experienced most recently can be expected in the future. History, unfortunately, does not provide many clues for predicting the exact timing of the transition."

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I've been saying that for years.

[BA Deere]

That`s where you can really get burned is to be too bearish and sell too soon and a black swan comes along, but I know "buy a call, buy a call".   Weather still affects us of course, but with machinery, seed genetics and chemistry it does take less ....I don`t know if "skills" is the right word.  But 30yrs ago a narrow planting window would`ve been a total disaster, now just a half way decent week of planting, everybody gets at least something planted.  And if it`s fit on the 10th of 15th of April, they will plant, where as in the past the 25th was considered "too early" and even before May 1 for some.   Planters have gotten better, you can almost tell a field that was planted with a pre 1990 vintage planter by the not quite so even plant size.

So although "Mother Nature bats last" weather is a bit less important today. 

[BA Deere]

To add a couple other items, drainage tile and some areas are pattern tiled with a irrigation rig on top of that, something oldtimers never would`ve "wasted money on".   And specialization, most don`t have to do livestock chores, just roll out of bed and plant or combine.  Farmers have also became budding agronomists, where 30yrs ago, many couldn`t tell you if "K" stood for Phosphorus or Potash.