Most corn and beans must be grown overall on land that needs rain and a little cooler temperatures, that`s not always the best news for northern Iowa. We`ve got our 100RM corn and 2.0 beans and we need it to dry out and warm up for good planting conditions, which probably spells drought for some areas in those conditions.
Elwyn is a good one to places odds on what`s going to happen, but if I recall correctly sometimes his odds on the weather don`t pan out, but he`s always close on yield. But like flipping a coin, every season Elwyn starts out with the same odds. It seems like the droughts that we don`t expects are the ones that have the extreme price movement. When everyone capitulates having no hope that prices will improve, they sell their APH and then scramble when 10 days of no rain and 90º days are predicted in July...and then the "short covering" or whatever it is that the smart people do, exponentially moves the market.
