Wedgies and Waves for Corn Market

[marketeye]

Tom White, technical floor trader with FutureRoad.net, says the corn market this week could face another wedgy and a wave.

"The market tested an old low on the monthly December charts before rebounding to close near their highs at the end of the week. It broke a trend line out of a wedge pattern which is often an “ending” pattern.  In creating a reversal week, we should attempt the long side again this week.  But the daily chart also shows that this “ending pattern” may only have been the end of
Wave 3.  Thus, we could begin a consolidation phase and still move back down later for another “leg”," he says.

What do you all think about where this corn market is headed?

Thanks,

Mike

[highyields]

I was wondering what the oil market would do for ethanol or price of corn, think the idea of high priced oil high priced corn could come back, and if China isn't taking our DDGS, what about soy meal??   They have to feed some protein over there right?  

then the long range weather, honestly I was hoping for some dry weather soon, one for hay and two to push the corn roots down, the old timers aroud here always said a dry June is good for corn,  I tend to think that way as well, 2nd highest corn yield average came on a June with ZERO precipiation in it.   I remember talking to the neighbor July 4th that year, saying think we'll get another drought? well it rained 4 days later, and a good rain, and it made really good corn.    So a wet june doesn't necessarily mean good corn, dry July and August could put the brakes on this corn yield...don't go short Just Yet!!   

[tree fmr]

I think there is too many ifs to answer your question Marketeye.  So I think sideways until one of those ifs dominates the rest.  When will that happen?  Million dollar question there!

[hardnox]

As far as e-waves on CZ go, looks like a wave 4 correction with 5 down to come, as he says.

That count is valid unless CZ goes above 4.87- a 4th wave can't overlap 1 or the count is invalidated.

Corn seems a lot clearer than beans which are dominated by the big old/new spread. On one hand, current global production guesses would indicate pretty ample supply.  One question in the back of my mind is crude oil prices (which I'm unable to predict either) and the fact that vegoil tracks crude a lot more directly than corn does.

That would help bean prices but if oil is driving the crush then meal would get even weaker.

And of course China, which remains inscrutable.

Best guess based on history is that old/new spread collapses sometime in July which will tend to offer some support to new crop. I wouldn't recommend trading it, though.

[hardnox]

Continuing on the Elliott theme, this would be 5 down on the weekly.

Proportionality with 1 would give an objective around 3.75, fwiw.

If that were to occur approximately, the recovery target would be back to the highs of wave 4 of the previous move, the 5.30ish spring highs. Getting way ahead of it but that is far from an unreasonable or catstrophic scenario should it occur.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Starting to feel like a wedgie in the corn market.