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Veteran Advisor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

above 946 (X) would probably be a great place/opportunity for you to double up on short hedges for the ride down. fwiw

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

Man am I glad I hedged so much and bought a 85% ra policy this year the beans I have sold for $12 cash plus $100 ac ra payment if it keeps tanking is 2012 all over again. Although I am getting scared that my beans are gonna yield 80 instead of 65 by looking at them and hearing the yield reports. There is some ground for rent here but I'm only bidding a number that will net me $100 per acre or it isn't worth it in my opinion...too many other opportunities in this world
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

I had a few minutes tonight to review some
Recent posts.
I can say I can see what you are saying.
the high points in corn and beans, and now
The pendulum is now swinging the other, a
Story of extremes.

BUT I would expect that some of the fundamental would temper the extent of
How far it swings in the down side.

BUT I still maintain the market underpinnings
Are not as bearish as currently being used
To justified the trades action.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

 
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Contributor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

Good stuff bucky.

 

Whats wrong with making market projections. What if he is an enduser? Wouldnt he be allowed to "cheer" and be happy about as you put it, just as farmers cheered the market up to 8 corn and 18 beans?

What if he is a farmer and all hedged up during last spring? Dont be so 1 sided.

 

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Advisor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

My first priority is to the welfare of my family. I can't afford to wax nostalgicly or run my operation by the seat of my pants. I run a tight ship and strive for the betterment of my family. I don't run my farm on hopes and dreams.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

It all depends on where you stand.
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Weekly front month Sobering head and shoulders projection

Buck we were just reviewing the head & shoulders yesterday. I am sorry but I agree with you. Looks like it is "shock & awe " on the ski slopes. We're on the other side of the roller coaster now. Prob not short enough beans. Should be also shorter for '15.

 

Extended basis contracts for Jan delivery with hedge in Mar. Basis is  50 cents better than fall delivery. (corn, -49 vs +1)

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