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Honored Advisor

Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

Anybody in agriculture still believing our futures markets are open and fair....... 

Who on earth thought it was a good thing to let funds managers buy and sell commodity contracts.... without a scrap of participation in either side of the process.

If it has ever been a hint of possibility that futures markets are fixed --- has it ever been more obvious than now.

The volumes of corn or beans or wheat that it takes to feed the US won't move the markets.... The volume it takes to feed the funds and congress is far greater.  But neither on of them take delivery

-----------------------------

Yesterday I saw a number in the usda job justifications that said 97m acres corn....I been joking about with 96-- totally unrealistic... and somewhere below that was wheat at 12 million acres.   That is insane......

Wheat -- the cheapest crop to plant   and Corn --- the most expensive Wheat losses will keep you in business far longer than corn losses.

Well the funds will believe that......        

So today the soybean market falls.........   Even the back door cotton market is promising very little.

Taken out of context----- it is a sad time......  Some days you think the country is learning something  and then other days you think they have finally beaten the gift horse to death

Mostly it is time for agriculture to stop supporting this house of cards.  Plant what is easy and what you can store.  But mostly ask you buyer if he will be there next fall --- be serious about it.   He doesn't know so plant what he will guarantee market for.   Spend this year learning the finer points of gardening and plumbing.

Take care of the 17% of the public that lives rurally and let congress and usda feed the 83% that live in cities and won't get their hands dirty. ------ just for one crop cycle and see what usda offers next season.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

Don't have a full screen but clicked around looking for a commodity in the green and couldn't find one. Several really getting creamed.

Yes, buckle up.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

China govt is panicking.  Leaked internal Chinese govt memo recommending a 3-6 month stock-up amid looming food shortages.  Rumor is farmers have not been able to plant.

SW is 100% on the mark.  If you can, plant what the American People will buy. 

2020 may end up being the "Year of The Farmer" after all.

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1245363354581053442

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

"What's for dinner"?

 

Goose soup with a side of farmer hash.

 

We are on the menu...

Honored Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

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Senior Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

Today was an Oh xxxx! moment.

There’s no longer any pretending this isn’t extremely serious with massive economic consequences.

Stock market held up by implied Fed and govt support, for now.

Commodities don’t have that.

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Veteran Advisor

Spring knocks flu


@sdholloway56 wrote:

Today was an Oh xxxx! moment.

There’s no longer any pretending this isn’t extremely serious with massive economic consequences.

Stock market held up by implied Fed and govt support, for now.

Commodities don’t have that.


Spring always knocks winter flu Out. 

Reason is  folks get more fresh air come towards Spring. 

Soooo the afore basically cuts trumps pessimist 300k dead count Way down. 

Trumps piss ant way to money grub yet another $2Trillion ..

The guy is a 75 year old clown... 2 bad.. 

Course there's 2 other 80 year olds lined up to take the 75 year old clown's job. 

Things are shaping up, Mother Nature rules. 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

 

Chill pills are in order for you guys :-)

We do have a massive support under most farmer led commodities, called the loan rate, and we are getting below it in some areas for some commodities. Get nearby corn close to $3 and it kicks in big time.

Like it or not SW, the markets are working, corn is worth about $2.50 to make fuel, yet some idiot is still willling to pay $3.20 locally tonight.

We have some good friends who run a local hotel franchise....there is a business with no floors. Ag is incredibly stable and we on this site should at least appreciate it. jmo

$4 cz puts were cheap even last week. Corn has never had a down year in terms of demand in the modern era. That was because it was never a fuel. Now it is a fuel, so demand can easily be down a bil or 2 bil bu, the implications for price of a 4bil carryout are pretty clear. Thankfully, we have the PLC/ins floors, plus another MFP, etc.

Now the livestock guys are really getting screwed though, no meat in the case, extra hours on the kill lines, and pork and beef are down 30%. Someone is getting gouged, it is just not the consumer. 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

I hear AMC movie theaters are filing for bankruptcy ...really? they soak you $8, $10 for a ticket $4 for pop, $6 for popcorn 5 times more than Walmart for a candybar and shut down a couple weeks and they`re calling the bankruptcy attorney???  Try being a farmer, losing money year after year.

I often wonder what the post-Covid world will look like, with the "shelter in place" we are seeing how many "non-essential" workers there are.   When the dust does settle and the companies that do come out the other side, are they going to be leaner & meaner getting by with less employees? Less restaurants, less people who have disposable income to stand in line every evening 45 minutes waiting for a table at Applebees and Olive Garden.   Instead perhaps they`ll buy a Lotza Moza pizza and sprinkle a 1/4lb of hamburger on it. 

According to David Kruse a beef process plant is shutdown.  Glut of hogs, I suppose from an anticipation of China biz and a 35,000 Dow.  Kruse says unlike 8¢ hogs packers made a ton of money screwing farmers, this time packers are taking the hit right with farmers.

https://commstock.com/media/

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Senior Advisor

Re: Well Buckle up..... the big hills are just ahead.---Futures

Yeah, I was probably a little early   loading up the loins for the freezer but I don’t mind.

Now I’m waiting for the sausage sale.

Just thinking......if they’re only getting a couple parities off of crated sows anyway is it more a matter of gilt slaughter?

And waiting for the next Pork Powerhouses issue, I guess.

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