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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication, gasoline consumption (& ethanol) will be up substantially this week.  I couldn't move my tractor and fertilizer spreader a 1/4 mile up the road yesterday without collecting a line of cars behind me and met another line of cars coming the other way.

  I guess our short interval of peace and quiet has come to an end.  It was nice while it lasted. 

  Well, back to the frenetic pace of life, reminds me of Job 2:2, ".... roaming about the earth, going to and fro on it."

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11 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

Agreed.    The coiling of energy is real. This economy is storming back. The American people are resilient.......despite all of the reported bad news and scare tactics. 

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

100k dead ? Resilient or stupid.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

A 90 pct economy would be way better than a 65 per center but it is still a problem of historic magnitude.

When the WH cancels economic projections you know it isn’t good.

Ill stick with my 80 pct of fuel usage on a seasonally adjusted basis but the traffic does make me wonder. Although my entirely unscientific observation is I didn’t see a lot of cars at gas pumps.

Tomorrow’s numbers should tell a lot. 

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

Given that Memorial weekend was a week early it may take a little extra effort.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

Corporate profits were off 13 pct for Q1 and the slowdown didn’t start until the last month and not hard until the last two weeks.

We were already in a profit recession but everybody thought the Fed had their backs so they could bid stocks up to historic valuations.

Current valuations are surely worse than that based on what Q2 profits will be.

A lot of the come being counted on.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

Even with the sabotage of fuel economy standards, I don’t think we’ll ever see fuel consumption equal recent highs.

Unemployment will be near 10 pct (hopefully) into next year and office work and business travel have been changed forever.

When I wrote about the future threat to ethanol from a future decline in overall gasoline usage (and getting hit hard for it) I certainly didn’t see it coming like this.

Not immediate but clear skies in LA means electric cars.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

One countervailing force is that I assume some driving will substitute for flying.

Everybody was buying airline stocks the other day on the news that air traffic surged to 13 pct of normal.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Well, if the traffic by my farm is any indication......

the offset to the increased driving vs. flying  may be fewer people going to an office five days a week

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Work from home, good point.

Three of my neighbors work in telecommunications/internet/mainframe computer for the local university.  Two of them have worked every day all day for two months without ever leaving the house.  The third, who works on the hardware goes in two a week and works the other three days from home with Zoom, etc. 

  We're suppose to have our first town board meeting in while tonight, all remote. 

  The one thing this pandemic did for sure is push people to working remote whether they wanted to or not.

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