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Contributor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

I agree with you that we aren't "short bus special" but do you really believe that our soybeans are not worth $10/12 per bushel, and we're riding the factory and white collar workers coat tails? The average factory worker at Deere (Cat, CNH,..) draws $45/65ooo annually (inc. perks and insurance), a new 150 hp tractor costs $250000+. I'm having a hard time wondering why their tractors cost 10 times more than they did in 1979 but soybeans are currently the same price as 40 years ago. So- go ahead and sell your beans for $8.75 and be happy with it, I believe the rest of us deserve better and your president has done nothing to help us get ahead. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

BUT   the  candidate  said  Mexico  will  pay,  and  a  lot  of  farm  organizations  say  we  need  imported  labor  -  maybe  a  tariff  on  imported  labor,  fake  meat  check-off,   and  LOTS  more  taxpayer , indirect,  funded  M  F  P  to  ahum ,  help  balance  things  out,  exception  being  the  deficit that  conservatives - used  to  talk  about  -  maybe ? 

Sell   2  billion  bushel  of  beans  at  $8  ,  would  help  indirectly ,  pay  for  a  portion  of  something  -  maybe ?     

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

Compare  exports  of  2012,  2013,    to   2018, 19   and  when, where  did   the  demand  destruction  kick  in  - ? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

You folks do realize that China could buy our entire soybean crop for less than $40 billion dollars......right?  10% of the entire trade deficit.    This whole thing is not just about soybeans.

BTW, The U.S. cut off Japan's oil supply back before WWII and they pulled us into a war.   Not sure if cutting off China's oil supply is possible or even an option, but it sure would get their attention.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

I believe with today`s costs we do need at least $10 beans to be sustainable, however there are places in the world with half our land costs, company formerly known as Monsanto gave them sweetheart deals on seed and chemical. They send a dozen Inuits out on 4440s and eight row planters and pay `em $2/hr.  They probably get fat on $8.75 beans....you want capitalism don`t you?   I want capitalism too, but I`m also a "ugly American" I want us to throw our weight around and win, I`m tired of us being the 220lb heavyweight champion in the world and forfeiting our matches to featherweights.  

For us to get $10-$12 beans there will have to be some kind of supply management.  I am glad that you brought up John Deere and $150,000 tractors.  Does John Deere operate like farmers and keep producing $150,000 tractors if they don`t sell?  Hell no, if their tractors aren`t selling, they layoff workers, they shut down the factory and if it`s bad enough they fire workers and sell the factory and concentrate on producing utility vehicles or whatever is selling.  

But us farmers, go on AgTalk "Oh my neighbor has his farm for rent $250/acre, it doesn`t pencil out but should I rent it"  all the replies are similar "Go for it!   You never know when it`ll come up for rent again if you turn it down! And maybe you`ll be first in line to buy it when he wants to sell it!!!" .  Okay, did those NAT approved advice givers not read the part of the question "..it doesn`t pencil out..."????

In 2015 bean prices were about where they are now, the "greatest" president ever was in office, the real greatest president hadn`t rode down the escalator yet to even announce his candidacy and the Chinese had no problems with us.   So beans can get "this" low, even without tariffs.   You know the biggest problem is 5 years of above trend yields is finally out stripping demand.

Soybeans historical price chart

Veteran Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

So   the  best  way  to  eat  our  way  out  I$   -   ?   maybe    a   tariff   on   a   tariff   -  ?     

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

There is no surplus build up  ................  Where is it stored......... expecailly beans........its paper and the protein of processed paper is not going to work.   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Well, the Chinese were trying to buy some soybeans, we just won't let them.

Why on earth don't the political money bags buy soybeans.........  Bet you can't buy beans from China or Brazil and obviously not from Argentina since they are buying ours.  30 billion of investment in the bean market would net a 25% profit in a week at these prices.  But then that might look good for the ............

I am sick of the idiocy of arogant politics in the US...... ............half the country would drive a bus off a cliff to hurt a leader they won't vote for, even if they were riding in it.   I don't have a reason to live on the day that I cant admit I might have been wrong.  In fact in agriculture our success depends on recognizing mistakes early and changing our minds.  

What % of the population will support whomever is elected, even if they didn't vote for them?   Lets move them in to the middle and start over.

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