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Honored Advisor

Re: What Is "Positioning Ahead Of A Report"?

Colorado = the new Maryland?

 

Nothing like picking a third tier production state as a break the bank production area.

 

Last year it was Maryland and to a lesser degree Kentucky

 

I think we should start a "which state will it be next year" office pool

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Advisor

Re: What Is "Positioning Ahead Of A Report"?

It ought to be 10,000,000 to 1 odds so put me down for a buck on Nevada Hobby

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Honored Advisor

Re: What Is "Positioning Ahead Of A Report"?

Don't we use and sell something like 320,000,000 bu a week for the next 10 months? 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What Is "Positioning Ahead Of A Report"?

Jim,

 

One analyst did respond to my request for his thoughts on this phrase. In his own words:

 

"This is more of an observation than useful data, similar to short
covering and long liquidation. It tells you what people are doing but
not why they are doing it.

Positioning ahead of the report is a real thing. Farmers with big short
hedge positions or speculators with similar gains don't want to risk it
all on an unknown like the USDA report on Friday. Positioning for those
folks is reducing the size of position, or rolling down long puts to
at-the-money strike prices where they can't give back the $1 per bushel
gains if the market does rally. End users have been adding a little
ownership on the notion that the bad news is all in the market and a
seasonal bounce into November is possible (corn and beans and wheat).

Some speculators will also just take a flyer on a contrary opinion
around a major news event. We saw some of them buying 1000 Dec $4.00
corn calls a couple days ago. Those calls were cheap. They don't
necessarily expect a move to $4, they will double their money on a move
to even $3.50."

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Veteran Advisor

Re: What Is "Positioning Ahead Of A Report"?

Alaska
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