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Advisor

What a gap down Monday means technically

We would put in a weekly measuring gap down which projects a 8.30 low close to the head and shoulders projection of 8.00. Rain cometh prices plummet.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: What a gap down Monday means technically

You do not think some/all of that rain is priced into the FUTURES market?  I think we need to have rain to maintain where we are and mising rains would be viewed as slighty bullish.  USDA is already predicting 45 BPA, how much higher can we really go?  There is a lot of beans in the upper midwest that will be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, a lot unless something changes.  The problem with the beans we grow up here is that at some point when the daylength is short enough the plant will shut down regardless of how many pods it has put on or when it was planted. 

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Advisor

Re: What a gap down Monday means technically

No I think funds are waiting for rain to fall to put the full force of their short position. 3 dollar corn and 8 solar beans is where we bottomed in the 08 crash.
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Advisor

Re: What a gap down Monday means technically

Or it may not rain.

 

But you are correct, charts are loaded with tremendous bearish potential, both near term and out a couple of years.

 

They actually point back to the old 2,3,5 ish (corn, wheat, soys) sort of base, but you can be 75-90% assured that the evil gubmint will step up in some sort of fashion before that comes to pass.

 

I say 75-90% only because odds increase that the gubmint might be busier that a one armed paper hanger at that time (or in total lockup, same thing)  and just not have the attention to give it. 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: What a gap down Monday means technically

I would say the odds might be greater than 10% of nothing gets done to fix it, if the gov't is in total lock up or something

Probably means the dollar is in danger of going into free fall, then what does the govemit do??

What % of concern would Ag get in that senerio

Maybe an Argentina thing isn't so much an impossible thing that could happen

Anybody saying something like Argentina can't happen

I'm saying the odds are higher than 10% of something like Argentina in the USA

Maybe within the next 10 yr. just a wild guess on the time frame

That gives us one more administration of say 8 yrs to double the debt one more time

 and then somebody really tries to fix it

But 1st we have to pay to fix it.

Probably the whole western world as well, will be paying to fix it

And that assumes Putin doesn't really do much more to keep things at the low boiling temperature or China doesn't speed up the currency wars a bit

If either of those happens -[especially the currency wars] then shorten that 10 yr time frame a bit

 

 

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