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Senior Advisor

What do these things have in common.......

2012 weather pattern similarities.........

24M acres..........

2.75 corn...........

3B carryout.........

2016-2017...........

Price plateaus with a range that's starts with a 2 or 6......

175.........

Never has it happened 5 times in a row going back to 1850..........

165........

I don't know either, when I figure it out I will let you know

Interesting talks today

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8 Replies
Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

Got me fooled

 

What are we talking about

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Senior Contributor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

What? I feel like that guy in the cell phone commercial that is surrounded by the 4 kids. Kids say the darnest things.

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Senior Advisor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

ok will try and boil it down as simple as possible......

 

weather pattern we have been in started late last winter, hence the cooler temps and moisture starting last spring with late snow right thru this summer...........SOI is still neutral, thus making other factors more powerful..........that being a blocking ridge pushing the jet stream south.........that is breaking up.........a pattern that was seen going into 2012..........does this mean we are in for another 2012.........no, but drought monitor shows a lot of areas behind and if SOI goes into el or la phase later in the summer we might be screwed..........also, appears we might have an early spring............

 

24M acres.............figure that this analyst and apparently USDA thinks we need to lose from corn, soya, and wheat acres to sustain prices higher.........24M!!!!!!!!!!wow

 

$2.75 corn............big crop in 2014 and corn is going there

 

3B carryout...........big crop in 2014 and we could be there

 

2016-2017...........thought to be a stabilization period

 

price plateau.........this one is interesting because it plays into that cycle reduction I always talk about........30's to 70's to 90's to 00's to 10-12.........a halving of cycles........well the point is, about every so many years we up the plateau some much and then oscelate on either side for several years even decades..........this plateau apparently pivots around where corn is today and could go into the 2's or 6's...........the bars are huge

 

175...........if the entire cornbelt had a growing season like OH had...........thats what the think the nat avg would have been

 

never happened 5 in a row...............THIS ONE IS REALLY COOL AND PLAYS RIGHT INTO PEAK CORN............going back to 1850's, which i am assuming is as far as we can realistically go and use the data................LISTEN UP HERE..........NEVER IN HISTORY HAS THE NATIONAL CORN AVERAGE FALLEN BELOW TRENDLINE 5 TIMES IN A ROW...........it has done it 4 times in a row and then popped up above..........but never has it done it 5 times in a row...........his chart had a 20 year trendline...........GUYS 10, 11, 12, AND 13 HAVE ALL FALLEN BELOW THAT 20 YEAR TRENDLINE.............HE SAYS WE WILL MAKE HISTORY IF 14 FALLS BELOW IT..........o and FYI, the trendline is falling or at least flat now depending on how far back your reach...........PEAK CORN.....

 

165...........is what they figure the USDA will use in Feb..........didnt give an acre number for corn...........threw out 82-83M on soya though.............

 

BONUS ROUND

 

152................using models, this is what the weather said we should have grown.......instead of 158...........interesting, because I still think the number is too high, but we will never know.........

 

1.8%..........world consumptive growth........which he said coincidently is about what trendline runs............his thesis falls about though if we see this 5 years in a row thing hit..........thus his theory, we dont need more acres, we need less..........hence the 24M.........

 

well thats enough for now.........

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Frequent Contributor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

Who's He?   What seminar were you at?

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Senior Contributor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

All those words and the only one  that matters in the end is weather!!!

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Advisor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

Was this the infamous Elynn Taylor???
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Honored Advisor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

You need to take the blinders off.

 

POLITICS are right up there with weather.

 

Argentina has by the last #'s I've seen 435 million bu's of beans in storage because of the raping the govt does to the farmers upon sale of them.

 

The old Rhodesia was an exporting country till politics eliminated the farmers (killed them)

 

Venezuela has followed the socialist ways into destruction of their farm sector as well and just this week bought a large shipment of wheat.

 

Don't count out politics as being just as lethal as bad weather.

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Senior Contributor

Re: What do these things have in common.......

So now Peak Corn is about trendline yield?   You have mentioned before that trendline doesn't mean squat.  It's about total bushels produced at the end of the year.  Harvested acres times yield.  Correct?  I believe excluding 2012 the last five years have produced bigger and bigger crops.  We failed to meet trendline 4 years running now but have produced huge crops in all but one of those years.  To me that isn't exactly a screaming endorsement for your Peak Corn fantasy.  I agree with you completely that trendline doesn't mean squat and really don't know why the government and others fixate so much on it.  Its about bushels.  As a side note I would think that if we shed all of the marginal acres everyone  is threatening to plant to beans we might very well go above trendline with decent weather.  Doesn't mean anything but could sure happen.  With the resources, technology, and land we have available there is no end to what the American farmer can produce in the coming decades.  Now, will economics and demand for our commodities limit how many bushels get produced from time to time?  Sure it will but that was not the basis for you little peak corn theory you started with a few years ago.  Will production be limited by economics and demand at times?  Absolutely.  Are we at a point where we cannot physically grow more and more corn if there is a demand and markets dictate it?  Absolutely not!

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