ok will try and boil it down as simple as possible......
weather pattern we have been in started late last winter, hence the cooler temps and moisture starting last spring with late snow right thru this summer...........SOI is still neutral, thus making other factors more powerful..........that being a blocking ridge pushing the jet stream south.........that is breaking up.........a pattern that was seen going into 2012..........does this mean we are in for another 2012.........no, but drought monitor shows a lot of areas behind and if SOI goes into el or la phase later in the summer we might be screwed..........also, appears we might have an early spring............
24M acres.............figure that this analyst and apparently USDA thinks we need to lose from corn, soya, and wheat acres to sustain prices higher.........24M!!!!!!!!!!wow
$2.75 corn............big crop in 2014 and corn is going there
3B carryout...........big crop in 2014 and we could be there
2016-2017...........thought to be a stabilization period
price plateau.........this one is interesting because it plays into that cycle reduction I always talk about........30's to 70's to 90's to 00's to 10-12.........a halving of cycles........well the point is, about every so many years we up the plateau some much and then oscelate on either side for several years even decades..........this plateau apparently pivots around where corn is today and could go into the 2's or 6's...........the bars are huge
175...........if the entire cornbelt had a growing season like OH had...........thats what the think the nat avg would have been
never happened 5 in a row...............THIS ONE IS REALLY COOL AND PLAYS RIGHT INTO PEAK CORN............going back to 1850's, which i am assuming is as far as we can realistically go and use the data................LISTEN UP HERE..........NEVER IN HISTORY HAS THE NATIONAL CORN AVERAGE FALLEN BELOW TRENDLINE 5 TIMES IN A ROW...........it has done it 4 times in a row and then popped up above..........but never has it done it 5 times in a row...........his chart had a 20 year trendline...........GUYS 10, 11, 12, AND 13 HAVE ALL FALLEN BELOW THAT 20 YEAR TRENDLINE.............HE SAYS WE WILL MAKE HISTORY IF 14 FALLS BELOW IT..........o and FYI, the trendline is falling or at least flat now depending on how far back your reach...........PEAK CORN.....
165...........is what they figure the USDA will use in Feb..........didnt give an acre number for corn...........threw out 82-83M on soya though.............
BONUS ROUND
152................using models, this is what the weather said we should have grown.......instead of 158...........interesting, because I still think the number is too high, but we will never know.........
1.8%..........world consumptive growth........which he said coincidently is about what trendline runs............his thesis falls about though if we see this 5 years in a row thing hit..........thus his theory, we dont need more acres, we need less..........hence the 24M.........
well thats enough for now.........
