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sw363535
Honored Advisor

What do you believe?

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What are you gonna believe?   Usda data or the three farms in this article?

LATE FROST AND DRY WEATHER CAUSE CROP DAMAGE

That is Alabama, Illinois, and South Dakota speaking.  With corn killing frost just northwest of Chicago,  100F days and dry weather in the Dakota region.  Flooding conditions in Alabama------ anyway read it ,, it is very enlightening.

Here sitting on the panhandle region sw, we haven't seen the mid 90's yet.  Few days of complete sunshine, very odd for us.  We should be well done with corn planting a month ago, hot days should be finishing the wheat crop, and corn should be racing to tassel in 3 weeks(ahead of the 4 th of July), instead of the ankle deep yellow corn we have... just this week beginning to find fertilizer and green up---the best of it.  The rest is very small.  Today the clouds controlled the sun until nearly 1 pm--well make 90 degrees today for a little while and tomorrow then back into the low 80's. nearly 20 degrees below normal for mid June.

point is why do we believe usda information that is based on nothing.  Like the chart up above.....

Notice how the first crop conditions data was three weeks behind  with 5/31 being the first rating.... and began at 76% good to excellent....  that does not seem plausible ...... excellent corn would have been planted 4 weeks earlier--it is beginning the contest with a handicap.

In every other year corn ratings stayed the same until at least the 4th week of rating.... we would like to think that might be while the growing point is still under ground.  Somehow I don't think growing point ever becomes a part of the process.  

It is probably all just "looking busy in the beltway" job justification nonsense data.   .....................   bad part is publishers will decide those farms in the article lied to them and usda never does.  Like CDC never does?

Also Notice how 2020 august ratings got manipulated to represent reality after the fact...... 

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8 Replies
ddtfarm1
Frequent Contributor

Re: What do you believe?

What is the point of your comment? Not enough action on the stolen election crazy forum? Is this your first time watching the early crops get started world - wide? Are you getting wound up for another insurrection? Whaaaat?

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

I’ll have to wait a few years to really see if it plays out but I’ll continue to contend that USDA has stuck a huge one in the gift-horses’ mouth here.

But if weather doesn’t cooperate, nobody will ever know.

If it does......well?

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

USDA ratings are a highly imperfect system.

They’re vastly better than cherry picked anecdata.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Jun9_21-Parana-River-Basin-in-Central-Brazil-Critically-Short-on...

 

Made several 45 mi trips into central Iowa today (eplant runs). Very little corn I could classify as excellent along my route.

A little bigger % good but fifty % had/has issues that will carry through to harvest.

Bean condition all over the map from just planted not up to pretty decent.

As went north the yards became less green.

My replant beans planted afternoon of June 4th were rowable this afternoon.

In my back yard any pie in the sky large yield forecast is found in the fantasy/fiction section.

Four more loads to go and I'm gonna hide the truck key and maybe park the grain vac in a hard to hook up to place. 

A nice gentle inch of rain would be beneficial, most tile lines are on vacation again here.

This is what I see and believe. 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

I - 80' s   northside   is  definitely  parched ,  Cheyenne  to  say  Quad City's  -  -  -

I'll  let  someone  else  take  it  from  there,  east   -  -  -

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

I believe there is a very good chance of massive crop insurance payouts this year.

The forecast for a severe lack of rain here coupled with a shorter than expected crop down yonder

Will most likely prove to be something our grandkids will tell their grandkids someday.

 

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Jun10_21-Early-Safrinha-Corn-Yields-are-Highly-Variable-in-Mato-...

 

The early corn being harvested now was the timely planted stuff.

Only the irrigated will be decent from here on out. Yes they have some irrigated.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

note the comment about possible effect on soybean planting

sometimes a "bad crop problem" just keeps on giving, well into the future!!

hang in there hobby!

 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: What do you believe?

Glad to see you here.

A great new Mexican restaurant opened in next little town south of  Podunk.

Would be great place to meet and catch up. Just not Sat night's as they have a line out the door.

Great Strawberry Margaritas. 

You got my number (probably more ways than one 😉 )

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