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Senior Advisor

What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

Lot of focus on corn crop, IMO we have seen the high water mark on production number and we end up at 12.8B or below.

But the soya number is getting little attention?

IMO acres are too high, the nat avg. number they are using is down right ignorant considering where the "new acre" are....IMO we end up around 3.4B or less.

So whats that look like on the balance sheets.

I am just not buying this record crop in the bin gig

Full disclosure, we look good but not great, we have hole and same stand issues, but still a nice one coming. Beans are all over the board, some look good and other like crap.

Think carryout on corn ends up around 1B plus or minus, soya may end up as tight as we have seen.

Course it will take 6 months for this to be realized.

Interesting thing is, SA acres may get a haircut before things bounce.

We are playing a dangerous game with carryouts and $3 and $10.

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Honored Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

12.8 b bu of corn? 

 

1.5 b bu too light (at least)

 

Only way it gets that low is a month early freeze.

 

I agree the bean thing is all over the map. Still too early for them , Aug will tell their story.

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Senior Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

Careful Hobby, he'll want to bet you a steak dinner.  Smiley Very Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

So hobby, you thinking 14.3B corn crop

Wow

Ok

172.7 nat avg

Ok

We shall see, outta be interesting

IMO we are no better than last year and may be headed for a stretch of weather that will turn this market on its ear

Wait and see i guess
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Veteran Contributor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

 

 

 

ah yes the Peak corn song again from last yr is still the favorite turn.

Tiger I give ya credit you were correct on Peak=Peak prices.

Last year started the bear grain market and the trend doesnt seem over.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

 MT the crop between here and NW Kansas is way better than last year at this time.

 

 We also have millions of acres of crop planted on all of that good northern soil that was summerfallowed last year

 

This big weekend rain event is not so big ...yet.

 

Still could get hot and dry or freeze early 

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Honored Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

Shaggy I'd buy him or you that steak supper, all you have to do is come up to Podunk on a Sat night (steak night there).

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Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

Intimidation doesn't make you correct
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Senior Advisor

Re: What does a 3.4B soya crop look like

I'll keep that in mind Hobby and appreciate the offer.  We've been trying to plan a trip back to Woodbury County any way to visit the wife's family.  I think your quite a distance from their location but if we get the trip made I'll drop you a line and we'll make a detour.

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