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Honored Advisor

What is our production strategy??

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Seems like we are finally all in the same place in agriculture...... we are all Altuve..... sitting on the cornball and hoping we don't loose our shirt again.   Usda will love us because they only have to deal with one number..... and they have purchased  a showcase of lost shirts.  Job security.........they got it and hold the key to ours....... because grain production has no other hope now..  

Worst case.........We don't need to go through all the bad choices we have ... Locally sw has cheap feeder cattle to feed..... so all I can say is, down here, we can get rid of most of what we can raise.  Profitably?  not a chance in ___!   Because if we are still healthy in the fall.... we are going to sell into these cratering markets for whatever we can get or sit on a commodity that we may not have a home for.

Best Case......... Usda raises the corn loan rate to $4 and  the fed keeps printing worthless currency ,  which means they will need to force the banks to take dollars and we become Argentina North.

So Planters are more valuable used, greased, and cleaned.  If they look like they haven't moved for a couple years --use an old picture.  Fuel will be cheap and seed can .......... well probably an insurance claim or a prevent plant ... so keep the mice out.  

We are going to plant..... not sure what will be in the box.  or how much.   4 years in the 1930's in sdks they planted for the payment... variety didn't matter. Some planters ran 6 months because there was a replant payment.

Were not there yet but it seems like an easy trip from here.

What is your strategy????  Plant and pray?    that's pretty much ours.. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: What is our production strategy??

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I`m of the opinion that if well run, the farm will take care of itself, but in tough times you`ll have to provide your own grocery money (off farm job).   I think everyone can find 3 weaknesses in your operation, my biggest weakness is storing grain and that`s what I`ve concentrated on improving.  What good is corn you were storing hoping for $4, but end up dumping it in the hog lot to be salvaged...and the hogs probably go behind on out of condition feed.   Like one guy said once "if you have a otherwise empty grain bin, except a bucket of $100 bills, would you at least check it every few days to make sure it`s still there?"   I`m embarrassed how many years it`s taken for that to sink in for me. 

One of my great uncle`s favorite sayings was "I never lost a crop planting too early".  With the extreme weather that`s become the norm, if you aren`t timely planting and 2 weeks late that`s a difference of 18% moisture coming out of the field and 25%, not only 7 extra points of drying, but lower storability.   I think do the best you can, that`s all you can do, keep your mistakes small. 

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Advisor

Re: What is our production strategy??

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97 mil acres of corn better be a misprint 87 would be more accurate and more than last year.  If it’s close , a lot less corn for me again this year.  Still planning on planting just less then yesterday.

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Honored Advisor

Re: What is our production strategy??

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Business as usual. Not many other options

Will lighten up on NH 3 rate over last two years.

Turned down neighbor this morning on 240 tons of chicken litter he has for sale.

Ground was P P last year and spread year before that so had a rest.

Also spreading it this time of year would cause all kinds of compaction issues.

I'm in the hope and pray mode.

Hope I don't get flooded out and 

Pray there is a market for it after I grow it.

 

Little something off topic...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RspZZ9g1tzs

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Veteran Advisor

Big Dry this year

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@illinifarmer wrote:

97 mil acres of corn better be a misprint 87 would be more accurate and more than last year.  If it’s close , a lot less corn for me again this year.  Still planning on planting just less then yesterday.

 


Big dry will pretty much negate / eliminate 30 million acres of row crops. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Big Dry this year

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When things get bad out on the farm and your up against the wall, the last year or in some cases next t o last year before the sale historically farmers pull out all the stops and plant everything. Cheap prices means you need more production to pay the bills. 

Really counter productive to prices but only option as everybody is a very small cog in a very large wheel.

It has happened on every downturn in last 100 years in the beginning phases and will only add to burdensome supplies and subprofitable prices.

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Honored Advisor

Re: What is our production strategy??

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I`m of the opinion that if well run, the farm will take care of itself, but in tough times you`ll have to provide your own grocery money (off farm job).   I think everyone can find 3 weaknesses in your operation, my biggest weakness is storing grain and that`s what I`ve concentrated on improving.  What good is corn you were storing hoping for $4, but end up dumping it in the hog lot to be salvaged...and the hogs probably go behind on out of condition feed.   Like one guy said once "if you have a otherwise empty grain bin, except a bucket of $100 bills, would you at least check it every few days to make sure it`s still there?"   I`m embarrassed how many years it`s taken for that to sink in for me. 

One of my great uncle`s favorite sayings was "I never lost a crop planting too early".  With the extreme weather that`s become the norm, if you aren`t timely planting and 2 weeks late that`s a difference of 18% moisture coming out of the field and 25%, not only 7 extra points of drying, but lower storability.   I think do the best you can, that`s all you can do, keep your mistakes small. 

View solution in original post