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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: What say Da Bears?

I'm playing the long side here myself. Mostly corn, but only physical. Basis is ramping up vs futures and canadian dollar weakening helps.
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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: What say Da Bears?

I'm just saying it's hard to have any confidence when somebody always gives the 'right' move after the fact. From an observer's point of view one can't tell whether it is ego posting or somebody has the greatest crystal ball ever. I'm saying you'd have more credibility posting as you do stuff, if you're going to post it. If you have the touch you have the touch and nobody could take it away. Or somebody might consider doing the same move with more information, adding their judment.

 

Otherwise, what's the point?

Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Re: What say Da Bears?

I know of one market commentator that used to always publish articles, after the fact, that told the farm readership of everything right he had done and how you could have got the alert by just paying the $295 subscirption fee. Problem was that the people I talked to that paid the fee never got the adivce he claimed he was dishing out in advance.

 

Its pretty easy to look in the rear view mirror and see what the road looks like behind you.

 

Another guy was pretty good, in the farm papers, and gave great advice but was somewhat of a permabear and really underperformed for the last decade...anyone following his advice probably now has a small fortune...assuming they started out with a very large fortune.

 

I sure don't have a crystal ball, and I don't claim to know where the markets are going. I just try to make a little money every year and hit solid singles, and an occasional one out of the park.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: What say Da Bears?

The evaluations of analyst results I've seen in the past (University of Illinois?) revealed that the average lagged the market average and seldom did an analyst repeat a good performance the next year.

 

There may be other ways to break things down, and good economic reasons to use professionals but, I never have and done very well. But few farmers would spend the time I do collecting information.

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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: What say Da Bears?

Any position long or short can be a good decision. That is until it isn't. The market is a fickle thing and can abruptly turn on you with a vengence. But if your long or short moving with the trend it can be quite rewarding, but those rewards can evaporate when the trend turns.

 

It can be as simple as a 20000 bushel soybean trade and you make a buy order instead of a sell. I've had that experience and a pretty healthy account balance evaporated to less than 50% of what it was.

 

But that wasn't marketing. That was speculation and there is risk in speculating. Now jim does hedging

 which is a tool of marketing and he is managing risk or protecting profits which is a far different objective than speculating.

 

I'm glad to see anyone take a profit out of the spec market. I wish you all could enjoy those profits. Hooray for Buck this time and I hope others hit it right the next time. You might think buck is an idiot, but evidently the idiot has money in his pocket. So if you do a good deal and i hope you do, well you can chortle a bit at our mistake.

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cityslicker
Frequent Contributor

Re: What say Da Bears?

Anytime you hear someone say they are using house money definitely means they are taking it in the shorts. No such thing as house money unless you're stealing it. If it is profits then it is yours and you could have walked with it in your pocket. The losing gambler always plays with the "houses" money. 

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OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: What say Da Bears?

Not this one.  I've had experience losing money. A bird in the hand is often displaced by the bird in the bush.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: What say Da Bears?

If you use that logic Don you would be renting your land out instead of custom farming it like a skin flint.

OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: What say Da Bears?

seldom right buck and always wrong but still manage to eke out a living.

 

Every sale results in a mistake. "I either sell too much or not enough and usually don't have wait to long to figure out which?" Smiley Happy

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