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What will it take........
.......to get corn and soybeans to rally? Drought, flood, planting delays, or acurate numbers on the grain supply?
Whatever it takes.......I for one, am ready.
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Re: What will it take........
Hey Roarin, it will take a good ol` 2012 drought and nothing less and that would still be late summer before the trade would wake up, we`d first have to listen to "Don`t bet against the American farmer" baloney the first half of the summer. Perhaps if Janet Yellan realizes there`s no more rabbits to pull out of hats and tries to inflate our way out, that will "bail us out". It will take something.
Here`s a interesting piece by the Anderson`s Mike Mock on net farm income, he was on with the Chipster yesterday. Apparently the last 5 years have been an anominally for high farm income. After WWII, 1975 and this last taste of Heaven that we all had are it, we may never live long enough to see the next one. Oh I`ve pooh-poohed Mike Mock that he just wanted to buy cheap grain, and he was wrong alot but in the big picture I`m affraid that he was ..maybe...not ...wrong ..gulp
Here`s the link and click on the farm income graph in the video box
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Re: What will it take........
The Fed can't and won't bail us out. They do not have the mandate. The QE is the last gasp for the Fed unless they start charging for banks parking overnight money. QE buys lower quality paper with printed money, so theoretically the Fed is buying 'assets'. The idea being to get banks to lend money so people can invest in economic activity. That's not happening. Fed money goes into trading equities. A negative return on overnight money and a Glass/Steagal rule would help direct more money into real economic activity (business investment, services and manufacturing) outside of the financial sector - maybe.
We've had it good and got welfare too. Ag cycles are unpredictable and the paper market has to see proof. We should be in a position to wait it out. The paper markets will correct if the weather case gets stronger but will be the lagging indicator. I don't mind. I make money when the market doesn't react in a timely way.
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Re: Anything at 160 national corn yield or less
is going to run the grains up a ways. heck a 157 takes corn up bout $2 cash.
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Re: What will it take........
The Feds don't need to bail us out (IMO), but it would be nice if they would quit supplying shovels to bury us.
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Re: What will it take........
I was on a parts run and stopped at Algona to get a bite at their Long John Silverfish and it`s next to a K-Mart that are getting rare as hens teeth these days. They had a sign up "Hiring $8.50/hr", now here is the predicament, at $8.50 one hours of buys about .7lb Ribeye, if the minimum wage was raised to $10, that K-Mart would close it`s doors just like the one in Mason City did.
10 years ago the Mason City K-Mart was busy, on weekend you couldn`t park anywhere near the entrance..but they closed their doors about a year ago, now the building sits empty. K-Mart is hooked up with Sears, 10 years ago they were crazy busy, the employees hassled you the minute you came in the door. Now, I hate to say it but they are like a tomb, you could probably drive up to the entrance doors and park on the sidewalk and nobody would complain, they are the `unburied dead`.
Back to my Algona story, there`s a McDonalds by that k-Mart and I saw 80 yr old Senator Chuck Grassley briskly walking in and at a harried pace was his aid with a laptop and a mess of papers about 5 steps behind.
I had this epiphany, since we have this Keynesian tiger by the tail and the fed has no qualms of printing $1 Trillion a year in new money, now instead of proping up the Dow and Nasdaq. Why not hire 1 million of the unemployed with a $30,000 salary just to go around the country breaking windows. More money could be printed and unemployed could be hired to sweep up the broken glass and manufacture new glass and yahoos could be hired to replace the broken windows. It seems like we need some inflation to keep this thing going and $8.50/hr ain`t gonna do it.
In the 70`s we had inflation, but we still had manufacturing jobs, now it`s as though we`ve "exported our inflation"...to our detriment.
Here is Ann Barnhart ..oh man is she funny. At the begining she talks about her closed brokerage firm and Jon Corzine and MF Global. Skip to about 19:30 she really gets on a roll talking about "slack jaw, mouth breathing, psychopaths"
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Re: What will it take........
How many "dollar general" type operations have sprung up in your area last 5-10 years??
Folks are moving down from big box to just a buck stores as they work on their survival skills
just the way it is...
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Re: What will it take........
They've been bailing out farmers for years. We seem to think it works.
I think Wall St did the burying. And how.