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Senior Advisor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

In a way Steve is right. You have to take the good prices when they are offered. Which may mean selling late one year and forward selling at the same time. Believe me it is our fault when we don't recognize the opportunities that exist at a given time,

 

I think we mostly are a positive bunch, Most of us. If not we wouldn't even take a planter to the field. We are optimists that usually think that tomorrow will be a better day and prices will advance. We argue with the Usda numbers because they cannot possibly be right. "they haven't seen my fields"

 

Well Yields do improve and the number crunchers don't much care if your drying bill is high. Dry corn or wetter than H corn doesn't much matter in the bushel count.

 

However, I don't pretend to be a marketing guru. If youdo exactly the opposite of what I do, you will probably average better prices than i do. Some of us know it is better to sell at higher prices. Unfortiunately the optomist in us tells us those higher prices will arrive later on.

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

2billion off this year a billion off last year! And everyones gives him credits cause hes a good marketer?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

I won't argue with that Kraft.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

I agree with you Kraft-t.  I am optimistic in that betting against what a farmer can do has been a poor bet.  The crop WILL get planted and it WILL get harvested.  I always believed this was a big crop on big acreage, and the USDA confirmed it many times although many cried they were wrong..  I am not a governement fan, but like it or not the USDA often gets more right than wrong with regard to reports.  We can fight the USDA reports, but that is what the big boys trade.  We often get caught up in the hype and this past summer it got alot of people.  The job of the market is to inflict the most pain on those that are least equiped (financed) to take it.  I am also optimistic that we have the ability to raise another big crop next year.  So, with that postive attitude I will say that I am pretty positive that without some massive weather issue in the next year that I am postive we will have lower prices in 2014. 

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Advisor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

the job of the market is to inflict the most pain on those that are the least (financed) to take it. i didn't know that.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

In other words, the rich get richer and poor get poorer.  That is what you're referring to, I assume?  Well, then it's right in line with the rest of the U.S.  We all pay for the top 1% to get richer.

 

Jen

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Senior Advisor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

I disagree 100% Jen, I am in charge of 100% of my marketing plan. Explain to me how I would aid the richer? Marketing is more than just making sales, it is about price protection as well. If I would have only been told this years ago, maybe I would be one of the 1% you call the rich.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

johnQ,

 

This is one of those posts,  we"ll get to reread it in 6 months.  What goes around comes around.

 Whatever the crop size "actually" is, now that we are agreeing to sell it cheap, size won't matter and surplus will be gone quick.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

"Monday morning QB".....all summer you and others were bullish and still seems today. Markets and charts said something different and the trend is still down. I guess without a drought no bull markets.

 

Folks let's not forget T minus

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

I just see the market different.  We go through this bear/bull stuff every year.  I wouldn't have been a farmer if I wasn't an optimist.  I knew a farmer who was a pesimist.  "Doesn't pay to put on fertilizer or have crop insurance, you'll never get your money back".   I personally think  we will get rid of this crop, and that it will not be burdonsome come next summer.  With a great crop year next year, all bets for prices on the crop are off though.  Once again, it's if we produce the great crop.  Do we have the potential?  Sure we do.   Do we trade that full potential to get the price down?  Sure we do.  If I had to farm thinking that I wasn't going to  make a profit on what I produced, then what is the point of planting it?  Low prices fix low prices, just like the highs fixed the high prices.  Would I plant if was farming next year?  Of course I would, fencerow to fencerow and including the fencerow where ever I could.  But I'm an optimist.  There's always another opportunity around the corner to market the crop and turn a profit.  That's what this thread is all about.  I don't believe for a second that this marketing year is dead.  Maybe others see it different.  But if you see it defferent than what I just said, why in the world would you ever plant anything?

 

Jen

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