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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: Whats going on?

I don't know what is posted on the other site- don't find time to cover them all.  But do think that we fell into an alternative universe back in that timeframe where people for whom none of it makes sense are more rational than the rest of us who are still trying to figure it out.

 

Also would agree with Wheaton that there have been failures to rein in some of the more egregious flamers but I understand that there is a fine line on censorship.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Whats going on?


@Farmerjoe79 wrote:
You got to remember that six years ago that all there was to talk about was production cost and yield possibilities. The markets back then were nothing to talk about cause they only moved a nickel in a weeks time. Now they could be up 20 one minute cause were in a drought and down 20 the next cause china says they aren't eating today. People just look at this thing totally different these days.

I think there is truth in what you say.

Had a grain trader at a elevator tell me a couple years ago that it used to be if the market rose 2 cents all the alarms went off and everyone tried to figure out what was happening.

Now anything less than 20 cent move is just another day, nothing to get excited about.

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gregs3821958
Veteran Contributor

Re: Whats going on?

I was thinking the same thing a while back, Ray. Over 6 years ago I posted quite a bit.

 

 BADeere has a good point about changing ways we communicate. As a teacher, I notice my college students do not read e-mail, nor look at the web as much. It's old school now.

 

SilverWheaton also has useful points-- we have professional marketing people offering information. While I like to read these posts on a regular basis, I am less likely to post my own somewhat unprofessional marketing opinions. I do, however, very much like to read the wide variety of comments posted as part of my marketing intake, so I lurk on a regular basis.

 

 "Better times" for farm prices, or acceptance of rapidly changing markets may also be causing a decrease  in the need to critique the markets more often.

 

Finally, this may be hearsay, but with MF Global, wide cash basis not necessarily following futures prices, over 30% of market activity traded by large funds/indexes, computer algorithm trading, and other factors, we may be in a period of less of a need for the futures markets as Palouser sometimes challenges us to think about and farmers are unknowlingly starting to move in that direction.

 

 

 

 

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Maybe it's a jaded reader base

That has concluded that there are no experts that know anything. It's not about charts or trends or fundementals.

 

It's about high stakes gambling and looking for opportunities and taking a taste when it's available. Not unlike a blackjack hand when you ar holding two face cards and the dealer has a 6 showing. You double down because it looks like a good bet.  Some times it is and sometimes it isn't. 

 

Farmers expect an expert to tell them what the hole card is and nobody knows. However, there are those that think they have the wisdom and experience to provide that information.  We all know better, right?

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Maybe it's a jaded reader base

While I can only speak for myself, marketing has gotten a lot more difficult in the past four years.  Instead of relying on seasonals and weather, we now have to look at what's happening in Greece, Spain, etal.  We have to watch out for a MF Global debacle.  We have to look out for rogue traders from JP Morgan.  There has become so much distrust in the markets that I just sit here waiting for the next shoe to drop.  In my opinion, the exchanges have not done any of us a favor either with extended hours and continually expanded limits.  The further we go, the more these exchanges are picking the winners.  The winners they are picking is the superfast computers run by algorithms.  I just pick prices that seem attractive to me and make big sales.  I find this easier than trying to dish out small sales over an extended time. 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Whats going on?

Jr. We got 40 ......mph wind, but the sw can bore ya with that.
My take......the trade is being led by obvious usda future guessing........facts are boring unless they promote usda's predictions.
Thus I don't want to tell u about my crop, progress, acres, ......:.real stuff.............the market is too nervous and tired of the jitters. And so am I. We will get back to basics in time.
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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Whats going on?

It's all been said before.  Whatever we say on here about marketing, many of us have heard it said so often that it's lost it's impact.   It's just being said by new people who think they are being fresh when they are just the latest tooth on the gear.

I, too, miss the old posters, many of whom I think were run off by people who never had anthing good to say themselves but were quick to say something bad about others.  There were some interesting discussions about why the person thought things were as the were.

I'd like to see Roy Smith and Ray Jenkins post more oftne, but what's in it for them?  Palouser is a fairly sane voicer of reason on most topics.

I think if Marketeye didn't provide some structure and a semblence of decency, the forum would turn in on it's self and implode.

I agree with the proposition  that marketing is harder now than it was 4 years ago.  So, one of the reasons I spend less time on this forum is that I don't use the board nearly as often as I used to, therefore, I don't feel the need for the day by day input.  I'm much more cash sale oriented and do less hedging, sadly.

I dont' know why we have to have the continual tearing down of other people.  I am tired of it.  It affects my participation here.

I think a lot of the market talk is prone to be dominated by the trader mentality.  I like to know what the guy in the pits is thinking, but he has virtually no relationship to what I see and my markeitng concerns.    Because  the discussions get so trader (not producer) oriented, and I don't have any confidence in convergence at the CME, I simply put less emphasis on "trader" talk than I did when I was hedging on the board all the time.

This is the only ag board I visit, and I spend much more time in Farm Business than I do in Marketing.  This change has happened in the last few years.

I don't feel I have very much to offer this forum.  My marketing strategy is mostly on-farm storage with seasonal influences and some marketing for cash flow.  I have nothing to say to help anyone else.  I do report some sales just for whatever interest people might have, but I"m not defending my marketing as I once would have.

 

 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Whats going on?

I`m just saying this in fun Jim, this is the smile on my face Smiley Happy   I don`t know what Ray J will say but I can tell that he will never tell you "hold off on your corn sales...I have a feeling that I`ll be paying a little more in a couple months".

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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: Whats going on?

     You guys seem to be answering the original post with a lot of intellegence as far as times and market evolvement!! I think fundamentlly the current market has a lot of potential uppside or downside,unlike 2007 when every thing was pointed up.At that 2007 time frame,it made me money to stay in touch with this forum because I did not have the time to look for every weather report or potential peace of bullish news otherwise.It just seems that farmer to farmer discussion is the best real info we have.The usda and cbot are fickle at best!

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Whats going on?

Ray h.  thank you for saying that-----the farmer to farmer thing----------------.  It is depressing, but in "marketing"forum  farmers have just lost their importance.  If production stopped we could probably trade expectation and potential for years.  Those actual yields coming in from the wheat belt have been in the market for months--------who cares what they are.  Usda and the rest of the trade spends more time on predicting the crop than counting it.  They don't need us,  they have the rest of the world to trade on.

 Reading the marketing forum, one could conclude that Ag.com is not written or read for or by farmers.  So as much as I enjoy the price discovery process, i get reinforced by the other  Ag.com forums.

The politics of our time has demonized success and I think the sentiment affects these forums.  Attacking the BTO(big bank, or guberment) is easier and more PC than explaining how adding more acres and investment in a larger, much too expensive planter actually lowered your cost of production and made it possible to make your childs graduation.  

And maybe "successful farming"-----the kind that is not just planting for the government or insurance check-----has become too big a business to have time for forum reading or entry.  It's a business now.

EWG started pointing it out several years ago.  In most every county, 10-15% of the "farmers" raise 70+% of the marketed commodities.  Those larger producers do not want to make themselves targets by sharing the details.  If they are excluded in the discussion there is not much to talk about.

 

just a few possibilities affecting forum change along with a better cash market.

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