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vrbuck
Advisor

Whats your cop for next year

All I hear is how beans beat corn in COP.  When I sit down with a pencil corn still is the crop to plant in my area.  Am I the only one seeing that.  

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17 Replies
Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

Beans have much less money on the table compared to corn.  That is what is appealing to many.  This is especially true in areas prone wo wet corn and basis issues.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

in 2006 we had 78.3M acres of corn, in 2013 we did what 95.3M

 

so what 17M added acres

 

2006 vs 2013

 

IL gained 0.7

IA gained 1.0

IN gained 0.5

MN gained 1.3

NE gained 1.8

 

so thats what 5.3M added acres in some pretty big corn states.  And if you look at those states from around 2011 thru today corn acres are flat or actually decreasing.

 

that leave 11.7M acres in states that likely have a much different view of COP with corn, especially if the big core corn states are drifting lower.

 

no one is saying corn acres will be non existent.  there will be corn grown

 

but once you get off the ice cream monkey dirt and get into areas that have to know how to farm and not garden, the picture changes.

 

0 in a bad year 160 in a good year and most of your time you spend right in between with 1 out of 10 being a complete losss, 1 out of 10 being a home run, 2 out of 10 being an almost disaster, 2 out of 10 being a pretty good year, 4 out of 10 being average.  those are not good stats with ammonia at $800/ton and MAP and DAP not too far behind.

 

contrast that with soybeans that you can slap in for less than $100/acre, and have a better chance of making a crop.

 

 

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Jed Stivers
Senior Contributor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

I know we're not the corn belt but I'll put this out so you can see what some of us deal with.
Seed/Cem/Fert/, tractor expense and water. (Water can get real high in a dry year., over 100 an acre).
Around 600/acre. Then take out 20-25% rent.
In the past we had to budget 150 bu an acre and hope we hit some 180's sometimes. The past 3 years have been over 200. Can we count on that now? We just don't know, we are trying to push to 250 though. These are across the farm, not individual fields.
So if I count 150 I can't grow it. If I count 200-220 it looks better.
We can book next years corn for 3.61 right now, that doesn't work on any of those yields. 4.25 is where it starts to look better at 200 bu corn. We have .25 in freight cost.
What to do is the million dollar question.
We can also grow beans, cotton, milo and wheat/beans.
What are you planting next year is the most ask question.
Now Buck what's your cost? How does 3.61 corn work? I know y'all's yields are better, is that the way?
turdypointbuck
Frequent Contributor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

Well, Cornboe, my corn is 342 and beans are 220. Average corn yield of 125 x todays cash price of $2.80 = $350. Average bean yield of 30 x today's cash price of $9.00 = $270. Beans all day long.
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IllinoisSteve
Senior Contributor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

If you are on prime dirt with 180 to ? APH's corn still pencils a little better. I think even those areas will move back closer to 50/50 in many instances just to save on operating money. The marginal areas like Tigger will plant a lot more of something other than corn. On good ground going heavy corn makes more sense to me right now. With all the bean acres everyone is threatening to plant I think $7 beans could be a reality by next fall. If you happen to win the SDS or white mold lottery and end up with 30 bu beans, planting a lot of beans to save money in inputs doesn't seem like such a good idea all of a sudden. If bean acres are as heavy as many claim they will be I think the corn market stands a better chance of offering profitability than beans for many. It sure looks like there will be a lot more beans planted next year. Just not sure it is the right thing to do. If a person is planning to be heavy beans I think you had better take a hard look at any opportunity that comes along to hedge some of them anywhere close to $10.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

The from now to march  markets will be interesting. 

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

Buck, i'm gonna hope that alot of people pick soybeans 'cause i want to raise corn. that said, in my part of iowa coc seems to be taking a bigger yield hit over cos this year. for me , it is 10-15 bpa AND that would be with somewhat higher inputs for coc. gonna do some striptill coc today.

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

Can you Moldboard your stalks or are you highly erodible
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Jed Stivers
Senior Contributor

Re: Whats your cop for next year

10.15 this morning on next years beans. 3.70 on corn.
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