cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Wheat ----- June 28.....

Well the picture of wheat harvest is a little clearer.....

 

Yet so far KC-HRW is technically "in the trading range" of $5 down to $4.50  where the heavy resistance lies.

Maybe Spring wheat can push it through the $5.00 resistance as a sympathy gesture.....

 

I have chosen to reown 2016 once more in the $4.78 price range with my two contracts (nominal committment) because I want to be owning some wheat going into the Fourth of July holiday.   When we may actually realize how slow and limited this harvest is going.........another side effect of a spring of extreme climate activity.  When it is too cool and wet it is just not part of the man made spoof of "change".

New crop is coming in to storage and some of our crop has been committed to a basis and protein contract.  The rest will be a patient process of letting the markets work... If need be sale and reowning on the board will probably happen.

 

history-5.png

 

Hard to ignore the spring wheat information......

 

Conditions wheat.png

 

Harvest is in full swing in Ks..........East of the Dodge City Meridian there should be some nice yields......... West of it is real Chaos...

the deep snow path sees wide spread disease issues....  a few select fields that had good moisture to get going early last fall can see some 50 bushel per acre yields.  But for every one of those there are a greater number of fields that were destroyed early or just not good enough to harvest.....  Some of the fields with big areas that came up this spring are coming in at 18 to 26 bushels per acre yields and are pleasant surprises at those levels.  

(the deep snow corridor not only saw the worst of the disease in sw ks, but also has enjoyed some severe hail damage this spring)

 

This usda report on winter wheat acres shows 32million acres(36 million in 2016)  and 11.7 million of spring wheats.

 
Yet the current Nass supply/demand projections are at 50m acres planted in 2016---- this crop....... and 46.1 for 2017 plantings--- and persists with record level yields.
It is confusing .... but my point is not one bit of adjustment for crop production conditions has been made in the SD Report for wheat even with harvest underway.
Why do we expect it in corn or beans.....
 
Arguably the wheat futures market is only beginning to come to grips with the actual crop rather than the one usda is advertising in its Estimates.....  Harvest will be over for 75% of that crop in the next three weeks.
0 Kudos
8 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

My wheat harvest ended in 2010..........I haven't missed it.  Smiley Wink

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

Buy a few bushel on paper----- definitely cheaper than you can raise it........ and it never gets buggy.

 

It has become the third cousin priority for us but it is hard to leave it on the high plains.... not that many options for limited water.

 

Here is a little demo of how much this world "just in time" grain supply is dependent on China's pretended surplus.

 

Now------ it is extreme in wheat...

 

image001.png

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

sw........I hope we're done cutting in a couple of weeks !!!

 

nothing going right this year

 

anyhow......did I read it correctly, usda is say 32 m acres yet NASS is saying 50 m  ????

 

if correct, that is a HUGE  problem......than not even tweety would make !!

 

one co is putting all the wheat in the elevator.....they have the room.....don't need to dump on ground

 

the other co is dumping on ground.....but.........a new toy is now found in all the elevators.....a protein testing machine

 

if yours test 12.....you dump in the elevator........if lower you dump on the pile (since they have limited storage space).

 

nobody said anything about any protein premium

 

sw.......just what is it, Chicago crowd has gotten brazen enough to pull all these stunts in broad daylight.....and act like there is

 

no problem at all, and all the producers, don't have a clue, or are so brow beaten, to accept what the people on the radio say

 

is true, along with the Chicago crowd say that there is no hope...

 

has it always been this bad.....or is this something new ?

 

 

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

oh....here is something...........last two years the local elevators have been telling me the protein was running 10.5 to 11%.

 

an article on this website, is going a bit nuts saying that protein levels are so low...citing south of 11%

 

we have been that the last couple of years (or so they say).....why the big stink now ?

 

or is it the newest thing to spin ??

 

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

elcheapo,

32 m acres is HRW     43 is all combined....   spring, HRW   -------- and 50 is the planted acres used on the Supply/Demand report 

 

All are usda estimates....... I would guess Harvested acres could be in the 26-28 range for HRW ...... lots of acres lost this year.

 

HRW protein bonus starts at 12........ or even 11.5.............. as you say ....... there isn't much protein in the wheat 

 

Much of last years went to ground piles because the protein was too low for the millers.... It is feeding wheat...  But corn is cheaper and available.  

 

Western ks wheat proteins have diminished --- some of that can be attributed to more wheat being irrigated as the water supply lowers to cheaper less productive crops.  ie wheat, cotton, sunflowers, silage.

 

The last 20 years wheat has been hard to raise out west and we have been in one form of drought or another with the extremes that come with the areas climate. 

Is there a variety issue..... If we go back far enough to remember the long coleoptile wheat varieties that could be planted at 3" depths to reach moisture and all fields were cultivated....  say before 1985....... ..... the scout, wichita, ......protein seemed to be present.

Now all the breeding has been to higher production and short to medium coleoptile(root length) bred for bushels not strength of character.............  maybe we did sacrafice some protein there, but I would think KSU would be on that issue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

Some of the best wheat we had was eagle (the standard in milling and baking.....and caprock
The machine would sound like a coffee grinder,
But it used to produce...one of the seed stock in
Many a variety.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Weat ----- June 28.....

Cheapo how are the yields up there???

 

There was a lot of nice looking wheat in south central Ks.  But I haven't read many harvest reports?

 

Maybe the market has

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat ----- June 28.....

Mixed news here, some freeze, bottom 2 row of
Kernals, nothing on top
Others say biggest crop on some fields
40 to 50 will catch much

Report says average will be 44 (crop tour said 46)
Last year average 55....so 10 bu less, and lowest
Seeded acres for 89 years, no word yet about abandoned acres...stats Canada down

Had Rev. ElCheapo did as he said so, been long
In the wheat market, the collection plate would
Have some green

But, hard to go long wheat before harvest, Chicago and market to market both saying huge carry
Over and "huge" crop comming.

0 Kudos