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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Wheat ..... Report.......... Next week....

I got a couple of of thoughts from the usda report........ and observations

 

Wheat......... The acres are not in agreement with those in the news the last few weeks......(which claimed to come from usda)

Planted acres were reported as low as 42 million .... this report said over 50mb

etc etc etc

This report seems to have No weather adjustment,  not even last falls dry, poor stand, followed by the coldest two weeks of the year in decenter...  especially with the yield prediction Up over 20% from the previous year........  Kansas won't be even close unless we drop half the western half of the state .......... then harvested acres fall a lot...

 

And it is obvious there is no other weather problem hedging in corn or beans in the report........

 

With wheat harvest just 3 weeks away I think the risk is fairly safe for reowning our position....... with a loss stop mentality.  The bear strength is limited to some pretty bazaar possibilities...... My loss stop will be assessing which reality gets reported the loudest..  The damage and missing acres, or the great yields on the unaffected areas.  

What do you think...... where do we reown?  or do we sell? assuming the chairwoman's troops will stage a coooooo... just kidding Smiley Happy

What do you thind is the strategy now for 2016 wheat?  

 

Or 2017 for that matter............. The biggest question I have on 17 is do you store it or reown it on paper.  I usually need to sell and thinking about that now makes me ask myself this question........"Should I begin the reowning process now or wait for the sale? 

 

 

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2 Replies
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat ..... Report.......... Next week....

Only thing I can figure is lock in "something" now,
One local is bidding 75 under on new crop.
Then reown on paper. No storage, and when
Market goes up, you ride along, the question is where
Do you think basis will go.
If short/quality problem basis SHOULD improve.

But what the $#@? Do I know....I should start an
Advisory service, do the opposite of me, and
You will do well.

But SW you bring up valid points....which should
Point to better things to come.

The question is will we be in the nursing home
By the time it happens.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat ..... Report.......... Next week....

Without a quorum we bought back the wheat we sold at 4.81 for 4.6025 this morning.... Now back to the news and a few days without a crop tour or a usda SD report....

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