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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Wheat could be in trouble

looking over stuff tonight....it's going to get cold this week in kansas, eastern colorado and the panhandles of okla and

tx.......i am having a hard time to find data telling me how far along the wheat is in that area....around here we are

at hollow stem.........

depending on wheat chart you look at......our critical temp is now 24 or 28

i suggest you look at your local NWS website, along the top, you can click on forecast.....that will take you to a grafics forecast.

move the the dates around on the bars....and set it on the low temps.......and look at the stuff in the areas i've said.

i have recieved some reports that wheat is heading in okla....i do not know how true.....if so, the temp for damage goes up.

 

we will see several night in the 20's........that could do several things......it could lower the ground temps, and thus the

ground not warming things when it really gets cold.......it could also perhaps "harden" it a bit, from the lush growth it has.

 

bottom line........yes, i think some people will be neg impacted by this cold wx moving thru........

 

will it make any difference........yes, if it is you with the damaged wheat.........but from the talk.......we are still "awash" in wheat

despite a lower acres planted, and other areas not doing well.

 

would be interested in hearing how far along the wheat is in different areas.

 

 

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10 Replies
dallasguy22482
Contributor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

Where are you located?

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

North central Ks

 

He is sure right in south half of Ks and much of Okla...   Warmest February probably on record following the first wet fall in nearly a decade....

The risk is higher than I have ever seen..  Some freeze damage is nearly guaranteed.  Wheat is at least 4 weeks ahead of normal growth..

I am in sw ks sitting on the edge of the okla panhandle...

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

But lets face it.  If we don't see 15 degrees and furnace failure in usda offices in Washington, it will be a non event.....in the markets...

 

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northnd
Senior Contributor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

Listening to the radio last week at noon and marketing analyst laughed at wheat worries.  Stated it was called winter wheat for a reason and would take a lot for it to be affected.  Stated even if it was the world is awash in wheat and ours is too high priced anyway.  So that seems to be the trades general consensus.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

We always have too much ...till we don't

 

Corn and  beans did it a few years back.

 

Wheat has jointed and is now no longer "winter proof".

 

Go long winter wheat if you have a gambling bug, and money to put at risk.

 

Mid 20's for one night between now and May at 2000+  elevation would be an odds on favorite bet.

elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

hey !!  who was that market forecaster that said the world is awash in wheat.........i have that phrase copyrighted !!!

 

i need to wake up my lawyer team to go after them........ U. Catchem, U. Holdem and I. "Will" Scokem........

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northnd
Senior Contributor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

I believe his name was Eugene Grainer. Pretty sure it was awash but may have been drowning. Good luck on the lawyer thing. Probably make as much as raising wheat-Butkus.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

It is the world we live in........ No actual wheat backs up a contract, so therefore we have plenty until we need some,,,, as Hobby pointed out....

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat could be in trouble

temps maps........don't know if this will work !

 

sorry folks, i'm not smart enough......i saved the info as a webpage....couldn't figure out how to do an image, since it was

from the nws website........

 

looks like temps in the teens to lower 20's........the newest runs come in between the first one's i've downloaded..and it's

gotten colder..........

 

between the possible freeze in the wheat....and flooding in the south........i think it's time we add in "risk premium".

 

 

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