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Senior Contributor

Wheat,could it

   be that grazing wheat is just going to be to riskie for an assurrance of normal production. Is it possible the cows are going to have to move to the grasslands?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat,could it

In my location, it's because our wheat isn't big enough to graze.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat,could it

Are there any firm ideas of the extent of winterkill in your part of then world ???? Or did you get enough snow?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat,could it

We're just now starting to see the extent of the damage as the area has been out of dormancy for nearly a month. Everyday there are new reports of winter kill. I will start posting threads to newspaper and local wheat consultants reports if anyone has an interest in reading them.

With the high winds we've received the last few days, we are now beginning to show signs of drought injury on some of the acres that survived the winter. A few fields were completely blown out of the ground Wednesday as there wasn't enough topsoil moisture to hold it together or the wheat was small enough the root structure was unable to anchor it, or a combination of both.

If the wheat states do receive moisture during the month of April we will probably be doomed, I don't think we can hang on much longer than that. If soys and wheat both turn into a bull market, does corn have any choice but to follow?
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Wheat,could it

Here in ND were still hanging on with winter very few days above freezing. I cann't help but think that winter wheat we have planted in the state is going to have severe winter kill. Frost reports all over the state have soils frozen from 6 to 8 feet deep. Lots of water lines frozen on rural water systems as well as cities. We don't grow alot of winter wheat but what is damaged probably won't go back to Wheat. Also here market is just killing spring wheat futures price looks good from distance but basis has widened and protein discounts are horrific compared to winter wheat. Last year our area alot of spring wheat had protein of 12 to 13 range with 10cent  a fifth down from 14 were loosing at least 50 cent to 1.00 discount with also negative basis of 70 or more putting wheat at well below the 6.00 range. While hard red winter wheat  has been around local cash price of 6.50  based on 12 protein and if over that would recieve a premium of 6 cent a fifth. This is not usual where spring wheat has held a premium to winter wheat and if proteins were same spring wheat still held slight advantage. The market is sure not encouraging a switch to wheat acres for coming year based on how they are buying this years crop. The Canadian wheat is flowing over border into our elevators because of lack of transportation and Canadian dollar is 10% devalued to US dollar making more attractive to move grain here. It will be interesting whats going to happen when local producers need to start moving grain and what local elevators are going to do with Canadian grain with  limited amount of freight available. Majority of local evelators are coops owned locally and what other elevators choose to do may have some long range effects on future business. I think the market has not responded to ensuring supply of wheat for the coming year. I think were going to see significant winter kill in winter wheats not only hard red but also in the soft red winter wheat. Also this late winter for large portiong of US is going to push winter wheats back into hotter part of summer and could have significant impact on yields when these crops are trying to finish.

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