Re: Wheat is record production in AU
Maybe smithfield should move their hog operations back to the midwest where the corn production is instead of building mega hog factories in a corn deficit area that is actually hard to get corn to . RECORD HOG KILLS last week and HUGE CATTLE on feed numbers. These aren't Canadian hogs like they were 3 years ago. Basis for corn is at summer time levels. Oil is going higher
positive basis and nearly $6.50 cash corn right now.............um...........its not $7 or $8 i know...........but I dont think i would consider it a spoiler.............harvest is wrapped up and supply should be replenished............
most people didn't share my exhuberance last year at this time............when corn was a $1.50 lower, maybe more............and we ended up with cash corn above $8............has the ship sailed on $8, maybe.........but its a long way to dec 2012 and we have a shorter crop and less carry to start with.........only thing keeping a lid on things is demand perception, and for most perception is reality..........devil is in the details, I may be way wrong..........but if the projected cut in demand is only half of advertised..........well, I guess we will have to wait and see.........and if the cut in demand is realized we still build zero back into stocks until 2012 crop hits.........
FYI..........the cut in corn demand projections from August to November is the largest in modern history (cant find chart but pretty sure thats what it shows)...........DTN had a nice chart on this and then compared the Aug to Nov numbers to actual...........guess which way actual demand went...........I can tell you it wasn't bearish.........
MT on demand
still can't figure out why you guys say USDA is full of male bovine excriment when they talk about grains numbers but then turn around a swear that the numbers on livestock are more true than the bible!?????
SO which is it?
Or does USDA only lie about grains?
Re: MT on demand
Re: MT on demand
We have had a pretty good harvest here in the EU. Eu corn and wheat yields are impoved over last year, much of the gains are in Eastern Europe where they had big problems with lack of moisture last year. Not so this time around. Apart from the Germans having a disastorous canola harvest, meaning there is now a shortage of rapeseed in the EU so they are crushing sunflowers like crazy at the moment instead.
Australians are looking down the barrel of a monster harvest of their own and Russia and the Ukraine are looking to sell everything they can before their ports freeze. After that it will be up to the Australians to pick up the baton.
Not suprised you guys are taking some of our feed wheat, the feed industry in the UK had a bad summer, so there is no demand, and buyers like me know there prices will only weaken as time goes by. Suprisingly feed barley is worth more than wheat on farm at the moment. I could get barley delivered to my plant for £155/t in December, they would want about £154 for wheat.
So rapemeal and distillers or corn gluten are all still expensive, but I can buy French corn at the docks today for £190/t. Soyabean meal would be around £260/t today I guess. Maybe less.
My guess is that harvest 2012 will be pretty subdued and a couple of months ago I told a lot of my guys to sell their Canola harvest for 2012 or some of it, there is a huge amount of canola in the ground in the EU today and we have had only a very mild winter so far. Canola/Oilseed rape was probably the most profitable crop here in the UK this year, guys were getting paid over £400/t ex farm including their oil bonuses, today it is more like £330/t ex for collection next year.
Still if the Chinese get in on the act, we could see a push on soya prices, crude oil is supportive, ethanol is still profitable, and Thailand will need to import rice or something because their rice crop is half washed away.
Re: MT on demand
Ollie; just did a little converting and find that our CAN$239.02/t spot price this am would be £146.20 so wonder how much it would cost to transport to your port.
I expect your French corn is cheaper than we could land it in there.
So now the question is, is Canadian corn dear or French corn cheap?
Time will tell.
Wheat is CAN$227.63 spot this am and lots is being used in feed production as we had a good crop in 2011.
2012 wheat may be a different situation as planting is down and much was planted late so yields/ha will also likely be down next year.
Re: MT on demand
Hi, thats interesting. It can't cost £40/t to ship something, can it?
Apparently we mostly import French or Brazilian corn, that is what is on my price list. Until the corn harvest in the EU started, old crop corn was more like £250/t at the docks. It is mostly used in poultry diets because of its cost. Whether £190/t a for French corn is cheap I am not so sure, would it be worth £40/t more than feed wheat to you guys? You favour corn instead of wheat for livestock don't you?
All of the crops I have seen here in the Southern UK look well, the mild winter has been kind to many crops and even the late planted stuff is faring well.
Here is a list of feed materials I can get from one of my suppliers at the docks today.
Certified origin non-GM soyabean meal- not availible but it does offer it May-Oct next year for £302/t
Hipro Soya meal £257/t
Argentine Soya pellets £246/t
EU rapeseed meal £165/t
Soya hull pellets £145/t
Corn Gluten £145
Imported Wheatfeed (the stuff that is left from flour milling) £145
Citrus pulp (dried citrus residue pelleted) £162
EU wheat distiller pellets £182
US corn distillers £182
Imported sugarbeet pellets £158/t
Not even sure if you guys use all of these things.