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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: MT on demand

J.R., the USDA may very well be correct that we cut 442 million bushels of corn demand from last year to this year.  The point is that we will not be cutting demand at these prices when ethanol plants are making three year highs in profit margin, live cattle are trading at $125-$130, and hogs are around triple digits.  I really believe end users took advantage when futures prices slipped below $6 and have a lot of coverage on paper.  This is why I believe the real play comes via basis.  Considering what basis has done locally in just the last 60 days, I can only imagine what it will look like in July/August.

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Dodger
Contributor

Re: are you bored or what.........

Mizzou,

 

  Sales are good for corn, but sales mean nothing if no one takes delivery. Export inspections are reported later in the week after export sales, and export inspections, i.e. exports are off @22% for corn, and 34% for soybeans. Last year we sold a lot of beans to China, but as everyone should know, they did not take delivery of all those beans, i.e. export inspections/liftings They canceled some, the pushed some back into this year for delivery, and they can switch orgins, i.e. "we told Gavilon or ADM we wanted US beans, but now we are pushing that order back a couple months and now we want the beans from South America." Sales do not mean squat until its on a boat (barge) and heading to a destination. Cause if it aint on a boat? Its sitting here and adding to the US carryout. Export inspections, significantly off this year.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Wheat imp[orts from EU for feed use.

Dodgers he just shows how much of a Newbee he is with his huge exports talk. Anyone with any grain experience knows its inspections that count. He needs to pay for a different advisor to get the right info.
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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat imp[orts from EU for feed use.

Same old story under the same  conditions. Carolina's are the ONLY receiving port - and it's for hogs. They built a port for the reason they are deficit feed there. No market affect except psychology.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

VR........here you go......think I am doing just fine.........

  GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                             - 1,000 BUSHELS -
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        CURRENT      PREVIOUS
               ------------ WEEK ENDING -----------  MARKET YEAR   MARKET YEAR
GRAIN           11/10/11      11/03/11      11/11/10    TO DATE       TO DATE

WHEAT            10,356        13,742        16,903       486,300       508,787
RYE                   0             0             0             0             0
OATS                  9            16             0           237            43
BARLEY                0            68            30         5,508         3,454
FLAXSEED              0             6             0            37            38
CORN             27,713        23,840        31,106       277,667       353,970
SORGHUM             982         1,673         5,919        20,256        32,220
SOYBEANS         53,524        51,730        76,170       313,299       469,184
SUNFLOWER             0             0             0             0             0

TOTAL            92,584        91,075       130,128     1,103,304     1,367,696
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER
SEEDS.

 

 

Yes grains exports are lagging last year.............but according to the USDA we will also export less..........thus on an adjusted percentage basis we are not that far behind...........and corn sales are ahead of last year non adjusted, soya and wheat are not far behind..........FYI yesterdays soya shipments were very bullish............



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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: MT on demand

Ollie;

The price I was quoting was spot to the farmer delivered into an elevator.

I do not know much about the margins, markups or costs from there.

The elevators are mostly on rail but often use trucks to deliver to a terminal elevator on the lakes.

From there it would have to be loaded on a ship and shipped through the lakes and seaway to the Atlantic and then off to you in GB. Not sure what the costs would be but think it would use up all that $40 at least. Everybody likes a little piece of the pie.

 

I am unable to tell you all the different ingredients that feed mills use.

I used my own corn and added soymeal and premix minerals to make my own feed on farm when I had pigs. Quit that business as I was getting too old as well as my barns.

 

Do know that I sold wheat, not feed grade, back in August at CAN$255/t that was in an elevator and they were trucking wheat out almost exclusively to a large feed mill in Ontario.

At that time corn was over CAN$300/t. I was told the feed mill was using more wheat in their rations than corn at that time.

Not typical for feed to be made using wheat in Ontario. Corn is usually the feed grain.

Lots of 'other' ingredients used in commercial feed rations. Bakery meal is one ingredient that has been used regularly.

Dried Distillers Grain has been used more lately to the point that I understand swine rations have been changed back to other ingredients for the last few weeks before market because of soft fat in the carcasses.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: MT on demand


@NABFarmer wrote:

Canuck what's the price per bushel of feed wheat out your way, we were looking at around $4.76 here the other day.


Not sure we have much if any 'feed' quality wheat this year.

Harvest was good to us, not many quality issues.

 

That said a lot of our soft red winter wheat has been going into feed rations although its quality was good enough for milling.

Big crop and the budgets said wheat was cheaper than corn.

As I noted before spot price this am to the farmer was $239/t, in 60 lb units that would be about $6.50.

Not sure what you would have to pay to get that to your feed mill, at least an extra $20/t ??

 

You are in Alberta??

that would be feed grade hard wheat you are quoting?

That is about $64/t less than our price, should be able to move that into Ontario for that many $$$ and leave some in your pocket.

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NABFarmer
Veteran Contributor

Re: MT on demand

Yeah feed grade hard red spring wheat, some is boarder line number 3, anywhere from 11.5 to 13.5 protien.  Crazy wet here in late June/July and the coldest summer on record made things late, quality suffered as a result, easy 60lbs though. 

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat imp[orts from EU for feed use.

PAl in this market is all about the psych!

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smokeyjay
Advisor

Re: Wheat imp[orts from EU for feed use.

Very well put.  Elsewhere when human food needs are addressed, quality still commands a better price.

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