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Veteran Advisor

Wheat market..one word...Bull$%@

I am sick and tired of hearing the chicago crowd go on and on about things.......with their ideas.....well here are the FACTS:

 

1.  NO rain........none over the weekend.  The pasture wells are dry, the pastures have no growth in them, due to the dry weather

 

2.  Wheat conditions have went backwards......even extension is saying the wheat is hurting, due to dry weather.....FAR from "good to excellent".

 

3. We now have rust in the wheat

 

4.  We now have aphids in the wheat

 

5.  The wheat is further along..and tonight we have a freeze warning.....it's going to be below 32 degrees....

 

6.  We are down almost 3 million acres in us.......Canada acres are down to levels not seen since the early 1950's.....we are also getting

reports world wide that the crop has problems.....latest is drought in morocco....and they may need to import MUCH MORE  wheat than usual.

 

7. The world market is HIGHER....Egypt bought wheat at the highest price in seven weeks, at an international grain tender.

 

yet.......despite all the above FACTS........you continue to put wheat down.........

 

8.  IF....you take the reported reduced acres......you factor in the "average" numbers that are not harvested, for one reason or another.....and use the

    current trend of use just here in the united states......the carryover is MUCH LESS....than what USDA is saying...or the chicagoland #$%@*$@!

    are saying.....don't believe me, pull out the sheets from last year, and do the number crunching...then look at past history, given similar end

    numbers, and see where we were at.

 

 

do you have any morals ????

 

for those reading this........if the shoe fits.....wear it.

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2 Replies
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Wheat market..one word...Bull$%@

Good morning elchappie....

 

So, I am creating a elchappie indicator...bascially wheat bottoms when you have your first heart attack. :-)

 

Seriously though, I do feel your pain having been there all last year when the flooding in the east didn't matter.

In the end, we are all price takers who can't store forever. Just highlights why you have to sell multiple

years when there is a shortage. jmo

 

What is basis doing for HRW? That is the real market for wheat. Did basis improve on this decline?

I don't monitor wheat basis so I'm wondering. IF the gents inside the computers were that far off, the

basis would be increasing. Versus average where are you on basis for now, and then for August ship.

 (Skip harvest bids since no one should ship then anyway.)

 

Thanks

 

You didn't really think the market could go up when you get a 7 day precip forecast of 5" for western KA

did you? It certainly is supply stabilizing in a market with a huge carryin. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat market..one word...Bull$%@

Basis is wider than normal "here"  New crop HRW is "normally" $.40 under July.  Now its -.53.  negative .62 for old crop.  JFM will often see 20-30 under, but not this year.  Basis has been dropping for corn and milo also.  Tough to even get a bid for old crop milo.

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